Goat Talk NBA Bets June 14th, 2021

 Goat Talk NBA Bets June 14th, 2021

All bets through FanDuel or Stakes 

76ers vs Hawks 

76ers -162 

Ben Simmons 15+ PTS/win +240 

76ers win by 1-10 +175 

Over 225

We are in Game 4 now in the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the one seeded Philadelphia 76ers and the fourth seeded Atlanta Hawks. After losing game one the 76ers we’re dealing with an injury to their star Joel Embiid after his great performance and down 1-0 with the Hawks taking away home court advantage and riding a lot of momentum. The 76ers changed the tide in Game 2 after Shake Milton exploded in the second half coming off the bench giving them 14. 12 of those points coming off three point shots. Then the 76ers dominated in Atlanta to regain home court advantage with the 127-111 win. Joel Embiid has been very impressive in the series averaging 35.3 PPG and 10.3 RPG. The Hawks can find no answers for Embiid down low that’s clear. Many were looking forward to Embiid vs Clint Capela which has been one-sided. Even with his partially torn meniscus Embiid can do what he wants when he wants. He’s been playing 34 plus minutes and we think he’s doing okay. The 76ers will be missing Danny Green in Game 4 but that won’t be a huge deal since he hasn’t done much on offense and Trae Young can score on Green all day. They’ll give Ben Simmons more time on Young which is a loss for Young. The Hawks defense isn’t great, many probably forgot because the Knicks couldn’t score. That’s more of the Knicks not having a designated bucket getter rather than how good Atlanta’s defense actually is. Now against a team like the 76ers they struggle to stop anyone. Simmons can dish out dimes all game while Embiid plays low causing chaos in the paint leaving the shooters on the outside wide open for easy threes. The 76ers have 123 points per 100 possessions, which rates as the third-best offense out of the eight still in the playoffs. Then Embiid and Simmons cause so much distraction that leaves Tobias Harris open to be a secondary scorer. The Hawks are clearly struggling with the 76ers defense. The offense runs through Trae Young and Ben Simmons does well keeping the ball out of his hands. The Hawks even tried to go away from the three in Game 3 only shooting 23 threes on the night which is a playoff low. That was a bad decision because they lost by 25 points. Hawks need to hit their threes to give themselves a chance. Yes we are saying pick 76ers as slight favorites but considering the last two outings take the -3 points against the 76ers if you want it’s not terrible. The team that wins is 4-0 against the spread when they play Atlanta. The Hawks aren’t dead but don’t expect the physicality will stop from the 76ers. They will continue to dominate down low. Bet the 76ers continue to roll. The 76ers are also 5-1 in the last six when hitting the over. Considering how bad the Hawks defense is and how much either team can score that seems like a give me as well. Then prop Simmons to score 15+ points and win. It’s hard to think Simmons doesn’t get at least 15. The 76ers have all the momentum and to be honest don’t see that changing. 

Jazz vs Clippers 

Jazz +176 

Over 226.5 

Donovan Mitchell top point scorer +110 

Donovan Mitchell +35 PTS +680 

Rudy Gobert Double and Double +340 

Another Game 4 we have this evening is in the Western Conference Semifinals with the first seeded Utah Jazz playing the fourth seeded Los Angeles Clippers. The small city has the 2-1 lead over the bright lights of LA right now. The Clippers dominated in Game 3 at home with a 132-106 win. Kawhi Leonard led his team with 34 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists. Paul George also decided to show up for once scoring 31 points. That’s the “Playoff P” the Clippers need to win the series. Being down 2-0 the Jazz is a tough come back. They aren’t the Mavericks who are Luka Doncic centric. The ball goes through Star Donovan Mitchell in Utah but they definitely have a better team and role players around him. The Jazz hit the most threes in a season by a team in 2021 these boys can hoop. With Quin Snyder making Game 4 adjustments don’t expect the Jazz to come out flat once again. Remember the Jazz have home court in the series they can lose every game in LA and still win the series. The Clippers lost the first two games after Leonard had sub part performances. Paul George and Leonard broke out in Game 3 which is more of what the Clippers need. Kawhi Leonard has averaged 24.8 points in the series but probably needs 30 considering George inconsistently and the Jazz offense. However Paul George hasn’t been terrible in the series. He leads the team in assists with 5.2 APG and hitting the most threes a game with 3.2 a game in the postseason. They are missing Serge Ibaka on the defense and rebounding end. However Ivica Zubac has been coming up big in rim protection and rebounding leading the team with 7.2 rebounds a game. They’ll need the same effort and contribution from Zubac in Game 4 to win. Zubac has made Gobert’s job hard down low. However for me trust the Jazz. Trust they won’t let the Clippers come back just like the Mavericks. Their superstar Donovan Mitchell even with a hurt ankle is playing great. Leading the team in scoring with 26.4 points per game. He adds 4.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game this season. The Jazz have also missed Mike Conley a lot who leads the team in assists with 6.0 APG. Conley’s defense and veteran control of the ball is a big deal for a young Jazz team. Conley also adds 2-3 threes a game. In a close series those 6-9 points are a big deal. Mitchell leads the team in threes with 3.4 a game but Conley is the second option next to Jordan Clarkson on the perimeter. If Conley comes back Game 4 expect the Jazz to much better than they already have. The Clippers and teams they’ve played have hit the over 47% of the time in 2021. Bet the over on this one expect a physical close game that the Jazz will pull out in the end. Mitchell will show out with a huge night maybe even getting 40. That’s what we expect from Mitchell because he’s the only true superstar on his team and he is a bucket. With a chance to take a 3-1 lead expect the Jazz to come out strong. 

By Matthew Doherty 

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