The Current State of the UFC Heavyweight Division

 The Current State of the UFC Heavyweight Division 

We are about a week since UFC 260 when Francis Ngannou shook up the world. At UFC 260 Francis Ngannou showed off some new ability and his generational power to take home the title world baddest man and the UFC Heavyweight Championship away from Stipe Miocic. The headliner at UFC 260 was the greatest UFC Heavyweight of all time Stipe Miocic defending his title for a second time against The Predator Francis Ngannou. Miocic dominated the first fight with constant takedown pursuit against the non existing takedown defense of Ngannou. Some thought the same would happen, others believed Ngannou power was going to pull through on this occasion. No one really knew if Ngannou improved his cardio and grappling since him and the champ last met. Ngannou got another title shot by knocking out all his opponents in less than a minute except for Derrick Lewis. Which was a snooze fest that Lewis pulled out. Nonetheless Ngannou didn’t have to grab or defend no takedown at any point he ended the show in the first exchange majority of the time. Which was a worry for some. Ngannou never had gone to deep water. After introductions you could feel the intensity in the air. Two of the baddest human killing machines will square off in a smaller than usual octagon to find who is the scariest man walking an Earth of 7 billion people. Miocic took some early big shots which had many going even myself wow Ngannou is scary and Miocic chin held up here where others couldn’t. Maybe why he’s the greatest. Miocic went to the game plan and took a shot at Ngannou’s legs. Which Ngannou stuffed very well, kicked his legs back in a sprawl, and then belly wrapped (which is the technique McGregor should of used to get away from Khabib on the first take down.....anyways) using his 40 pound advantage to stop Miocic’s takedown then started laying bombs on Miocic from a sprawl and brawl position. This was a huge showing of Ngannou’s new ability that he learned while training at Xtreme Couture for this fight camp. Miocic was being bombarded with bombs from Ngannou. Miocic chin still held up which was so impressive. Miocic managed to get up and away but clearly was lost on what to do. He couldn’t get close because of the power and Ngannou apparently learned how to stop takedowns which is terrible. Now you have to stand with him. Which sounds like a death sentence for most. Ngannou clearly tired slows down and Miocic cautious doesn’t pursuit much more. The round comes to end with Ngannou as the clear winner. Miocic corner has to unwrap a problem the US Military may not be able to figure out in less than one minute before the start of the second round. Both men go out for the second but not for long. They exchange once where Ngannou hit Miocic hard but Miocic clips Ngannou to go on his back foot. That step back gets Miocic excited Ngannou was hurt, he was not. Ngannou fires off a left hook that hits Miocic right on the jaw and sleeps. Ngannou hit Miocic as he collapsed unconscious to make sure the job was finished till Herb Dean pushed him off. It certainly was. Francis Ngannou becomes the NEW HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD. He overcame his first huge loss and became the first African UFC World Heavyweight Champion in history. The win for Ngannou is memorable not just for him but for his home country of Cameroon, the continent of Africa, and an inspiration to anyone that anything is possible. The story is amazing from scooping sand out of a Cameroon desert at 20, to being homeless in Paris, France, to being the baddest man on the planet at 34 in the fight captain of world Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Yes the story of Ngannou is great but now that the dust has settled on the celebration that leaves space for some what’s next? Not just what’s next for Ngannou but what’s next for the whole Heavyweight division in the Ngannou era. Ngannou is a money fight waiting to happen with maybe a Miocic 3, a Lewis 2, or a Jon Jones fight. Those three are clear to challenge for the championship next. However what about the rest of the division? Who’s up after them? Who’s a dark horse to challenge Ngannou?  Who will these guys fight when the other is fighting Ngannou? Ngannou says he would like to defend the belt often. What if he cleans these dudes out fast who will be next? We have all these answers as we check out the whole landscape of the UFC Heavyweight division. 

The 20-16th Ranked UFC Heavyweights by MMARankings 

20 Juan Espino 

19 Alexander Romanov 

18 Ben Rothwell 

17 Andre Arlovski 

16 Tai Tuivasa 

Let’s start with some of the Heavyweights outside of the top 15. You can’t see these guys on the UFC main rankings but should be accounted for. As we know at Heavyweight it only takes one punch to end the show, older fighters thrive, and with such quick fights people can make runs to the top pretty fast. The 20th ranked fighter Juan Espino could be one of those older fighters that want to make a run. At 40 years old Espino is on a ten fight winning streak if you count his two exhibition fights. He’s 2-0 in the UFC but he had four fights with two exhibitions in total. He won three of them by submission. Espino will be taking on the next man up in the rankings Alexander Romanov at the April 17th UFC Fight Night. Romanov who is ten years Espino’s junior is young for heavyweight some would say. At 30 Romanov is very impressive at 12-0. He won his first two UFC fights by submission. Romanov's last win came in November of 2020. A win over Espino will show he’s ready for some top 15 competition. That can go the same for Espino. A good quality win or finish will certainly get either one of these guys a ranked fight. Former top challenger Ben Rothwell comes in at 18th in the rankings but isn’t the top guy he used to be. Rothwell was looked at one point as someone who could challenge for the belt. After his submission win in 2016 over Josh Barnett he was a serious contender. Then he just disappeared after a loss to Junior Dos Santos in 2016. He had two bouts with Fabricio Werdum cancelled in a three year time span but didn’t fight again till 2019. Since then he’s gone 2-3. Rothwell lost by decision in his last fight to Marcin Tybura. Forcing Rothwell to become more of a gatekeeper rather than a challenger. He will go back in the rankings to fight the 24th ranked by MMARankings Phillipe Lins. A loss to Lins could have Rothwell see the door for being inconsistent. Or just another gatekeeper for the top 30 until he falls out of that by Father Time. Rothwell has a lot of work to do to become a challenger again. Someone who beat Lins actually comes in next another old timer comes in at 17th Andre Arlovski. At 42 Arlovski seems to be well beyond his challenging stage in his career. Arlovski is a top 15-20 gatekeeper. His last fight was a loss to Tom Aspinall by rear naked choke in the second round. That put Aspinall in the top 15. Arlovski is in a weird position where there’s no one he can really fight. Unless you want him to fight a top 15 guy for somewhat of a name. However no one really expects Arlovski to win anymore. The guy ahead of him just outside the top 15 Tai Tuivasa already beat Arlovski. It’ll be tough for the UFC to schedule Arlovski next because he should fight someone back in the rankings. Just everyone also right behind him is booked. Maybe just give Arlovski a nice win and maybe a retirement fight soon? Now the man we were just talking about Tai Tuivasa. Just being outside the top 15 is alright for Tuivasa he’s only 28 and has time on his side with all these old timers around him. He has a win against the highest ranked guy behind him, he has won his last two fights, and won impressively. Tuivasa deserves a top 15 fight next. It’ll be interesting to see who they have Tuivasa fight up next, but he has responded well since losing three straight. The top 20-16 is packed with old timers and people either only going down or up in the rankings. Some gate keeper fights to make and to see where guys are at. 

The 15-11th Ranked UFC Heavyweights by UFC Rankings 

15 Aleksei Oleinik

14 Sergei Pavlovich 

13 Tom Aspinall

12 Blagoy Ivanov 

11 Marcin Tybura 

Now that we enter the top 15 we enter some top contender range. First up is MMA veteran who has been in over 70 professional fights in his career the 43 year old Russian Aleksei Oleinik. He is on a two fight losing streak with losses to a top contender in Derrick Lewis and 10th ranked Chris Daukaus. Both by knockout. After a split decision win over Fabricio Werdum we saw a resurgence from Oleinik. However at 43 we can see the Russian submission artist is more of a top 15 gatekeeper. He may be a good fight for Tai Tuivasa who is just on the outside of the top 15. Tuivasa is a striking artist and Oleinik is a submission artist. Matchups make fights. This fight makes sense. Maybe you could even give one of those guys the 14th ranked Sergei Pavlovich. Pavlovich just like Tuivasa is only 28 who is a future challenger. Pavlovich hasn’t fought in a year in a half; an opponent behind him would probably be better for him. Oleinik would be good for the name and a win over another ranked opponent does look better. Also Tuivasa would be more of a problem on the feet where Pavlovich is good at. He’s also a lot younger than Oleinik. He’s ascending up as Oleinik stock is going down. Either one of those matchups for me would be best for Pavlovich’s career. Tom Aspinall looked great in his last fight against UFC legend Andre Arlovski. He knocked Arlovski out and controlled the whole fight on the feet. At 27 Aspinall has a lot of potential. He’s on a seven fight winning streak being 3-0 in the UFC. It’s time to give Aspinall a fight towards the top 10 or a top 10 fight. Pavlovich could be a fun matchup as well if he was to go back in the rankings. However, that'll be a tough test for Pavlovich in a comeback fight. The 12th ranked Blagoy Ivanov is honestly a perfect matchup. He’s on a two fight losing streak and at 34 we don’t know if he’s got the guts to be a top 10 fighter still. A win for either Blagoy or Aspinall is a good one. Blagoy can slow a young gun with a lot of momentum showing he’s still got upside or Aspinall with a win can continue to grow his stock and maybe get some top 10 main card fights. The 11th ranked heavyweight Maircin Tybura is already booked for a fight with the 8th ranked Walt Harris on June 5th. Marcin Tybura is on a four fight winning streak. Who’s looked very good on the feet and has controlled a lot of grappling exchanges. The Harris fight is huge for Tybura. A win could throw him into serious contender status. At 35 that’s pretty young for a heavyweight. Tybura has to be watched for in the next few years because he’s on fire right now. We have some future top contenders at this section of the rankings but seem to still have what would be considered gatekeepers or fighters that are fading slowly. 

The 10-6th Ranked UFC Heavyweights 

10 Chris Daukaus

9 Augusto Sakai

8 Walt Harris 

7 Shamil Abdurakhimov

6 Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Now we are entering the territory of fighters who could be title challengers in the next year or two. The 10th ranked Chris Daukaus is unbeaten at 3-0 since joining the promotion in August of 2020. The 31 year old Daukaus has been very active since joining the UFC. He’s on fire why stop how? The problem for him is that the three guys ahead of him are all booked already. A fight against the 6th ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik might be what they both need. Rozenstruik is 1-2 in his last three after looking to be a title contender. A win against an upcoming contender could be what’s best for him next for his confidence. A win for Rozenstruik gets him right a win and confidence. A win for Daukaus shows he’s really a top contender that no one in the top 5 has a win over. Usually wouldn't call for this certain fight but hey it seems to be perfect timing. An interesting matchup that is upcoming on the May 1st Fight Night is the 9th ranked Augusto Sakai vs the 7th ranked Shamil Abdurakhimov. Abdurakhimov is coming off a loss to Curtis Blaydes by TKO which ended his three fight winning streak. Augusto Sakai is also coming off a loss from Alistar Overeem. He was riding a six fight winning streak. The fight makes a lot of sense. Two top 10 guys coming off losses to two top 5 contenders. They should definitely fight to find out who’s better and contend in the near future. Should be a good Heavyweight fight that could show some grappling but expect the fight to stay on the feet. As we discussed before the 8th ranked Walt Harris will be fighting 11th ranked Maircin Tybura. Which could test Harris ground game as Tybura has legit ground game. That fight is interesting to see if Harris is a top contender as we thought or is their a new one in the Heavyweight division. A lot of fun fights in the top 10 of the UFC already booked and some obvious ones they should book. 

The 5-C Ranked UFC Heavyweights 

5 Alexander Volkov 

4 Ciryl Gane 

3 Curtis Blaydes 

2 Derrick Lewis

1 Stipe Miocic 

C Francis Ngannou 

Now we are at the top dogs of the big boys. Let’s start out at the obvious. Jon Jones isn’t ranked yet but the greatest fighter of all time is moving up to Heavyweight if you haven’t heard. Jones will probably be Francis Ngannou’s first title defense in what could be the most anticipated fight of all time. That leaves former champion Stipe Miocic in a weird position. He waited Daniel Cormier out for a title shot last time but he doesn’t have Father Time on his side this time. At 38 years old Miocic has some real career decision to be made. Hope that wasn’t his last fight in the octagon. The greatest heavyweight we’ve seen thus far shouldn’t go out like that, but that’s how the cookie crumbles sometimes. Unless Jones wins Miocic could get a fight just because people would want to see the fight for a generation. Nonetheless Jones is up next leaving Miocic either wait, retire, or actually earn a number one contender shot. You telling me you wouldn’t be down for Derrick Lewis against Stipe Miocic? Because you can speak for yourself if you’re not. That fight would be fun if Miocic wins he’s guaranteed number one contender and has momentum going into maybe his final fight. Lewis already knocked out Blaydes so the only guy ahead of him that isn’t the champion is Miocic. Lewis could get the first shot at Ngannou since he does have a win over him if Jones and Miocic take to long to comeback since Ngannou would like to fight in July or August he said. A real fun fight that is already booked is 5th ranked Alexander Volkov against 3rd ranked Ciryl Gane on June 26th. That’s a real fun fight since they both looked really good in their last fights. Volkov looked way stronger and just overall thicker human being against Overeem. Gane looked real legit in the win against Rozenstruik. Should everyone that Gane can stand with the best. Honestly this is a perfect matchup. Two guys who you’re aren’t fully sure that they could beat any of the top three guys but are still elite fighters at Heavyweight. The winner could fight Blaydes who is kind of an odd man out and to also get rid of that round robin atop of the top 5. Gane, Blaydes, and Volkov will suffer the most from a stall out period in the Heavyweight division if Ngannou doesn’t fight as much as he says. However it will give Dana White time to figure out what to do with all those Heavyweights. The division is certainly getting spicy once again. 

Matt The MatchMaker 

Now my favorite part of the piece is when me Matt gets to play The MatchMaker for the UFC, and book fights that should be scheduled if they aren't already. 

20 Juan Espino vs 19 Alexander Romanov (April 17th, 2020)

19 Alexander Romanov vs 20 Juan Espino (April 17th, 2020)

18 Ben Rothwell vs Phillipe Lins (May 8th, 2021) 

17 Andre Arlovski vs 14 Sergei Pavlovich

16 Tai Tuivasa vs 15 Aleksei Oleinik

15 Aleksei Oleinik vs 16 Tai Tuivasa

14 Sergei Pavlovich vs 17 Andre Arlovski

13 Tom Aspinall vs 12 Blagoy Ivanov 

12 Blagoy Ivanov 13 Tom Aspinall

11 Marcin Tybura vs 8 Walt Harris ( June 5th, 2021) 

10 Chris Daukaus vs 6 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 

9 Augusto Sakai vs 7 Shamil Abdurakhimov (May 1st, 2020) 

8 Walt Harris vs 11 Marcin Tybura ( June 5th, 2021) 

7 Shamil Abdurakhimov vs 9 Augusto Sakai (May 1st, 2020)

6 Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs 10 Chris Daukaus

5 Alexander Volkov vs 4 Ciryl Gane (June 26th, 2021) 

4 Ciryl Gane vs 5 Alexander Volkov (June 26th, 2021) 

3 Curtis Blaydes vs winner of Volkov/Gane or if Rozenstruik wins his fight. 

2 Derrick Lewis vs 1 Stipe Miocic 

1 Stipe Miocic vs 2 Derrick Lewis 

C Francis Ngannou vs Jon Jones 

Conclusion 

The Heavyweight division is heating up as the new generation Francis Ngannou begins. Heavyweight is interesting because there are always young contenders and older veterans. It’s hard at times to know who’s a gatekeeper or a real contender because anyone can finish anyone. Nonetheless we figured out our gatekeepers and contenders in this piece. Before the UFC can move forward Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou need to fight then we will know more. Until then Dana White should schedule fights to set up future contenders. There is a lot of fun fights that can be made. 

By Matthew Doherty

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