Goat Talk MLB Bets June 9th, 2021
Goat Talk MLB Bets June 9th, 2021
All bets through FanDuel
Astros vs Red Sox
Astros 122+
Under 10.5
The sign stealing series continued as the Red Sox and the Astros got at in the second game of the series. The Astros jumped on the Red Sox starter early. Red Sox Martin Perez only pitched two innings, giving up six runs on six hits and three walks with only two strikeouts. The Astros won 7-1 in the end and now controls the series 4-1 on the season. They still come in as a surprising underdog in the sixth matchup. The Astros will send free agent signing Jake Odorizzi to the mound. Who has not been really that good at all. With a rough 0-3 record with a 7.16 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 this year. He’s not been what the Astros expected that’s probably why they are an underdog. The bullpen also has been not great with the third lowest wins above replacement in the league. So yes, going for the Astros is a risk. However we are okay with that with the + sign on their side. Odorizzi however has only two starts returning from the IL. He pitched well against the Padres going 5.1 innings with only one run. Then he had a bad last start against the Red Sox giving up three runs in three innings. He’s been inconsistent yes but with how the Astros have been playing going 7-3 we don’t feel to crazy going for the underdog. Also how the Astros offense has been leading the league in runs, hits, and third in slugging percentage they can get to any pitcher. Especially the Red Sox pitching. However they will have a task against Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi. Evoladi has been great for the Red Sox since coming over from New York. The big postseason performance then after an odd 60 game season he’s bounced right back. In 2021 Evoladi he had a 7-2 record with a 3.78 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 12 starts. He’s been really good. He chews up innings and with the surprising explosive Red Sox offense it isn’t hard to get wins or run support. Yes the bet is a risk but feeling the Astros can shock the Red Sox on a random June day. Odorizzi can be solid and I’ll take that chance. The under is self explanatory if you think Odorizzi will be solid Evoladi may get hit a little but not enough to go over 10.
Yankees vs Twins
Yankees -1.5 spread
Under 8.5
The Yankees who are in third in the AL East being 6.5 games back which is unexpected are coming off a 8-4 win over the first game since 2019 against the Twins. They were in danger of going .500 but they avoided that disaster in Yankee’s fandom. The last place Twins have been very bad this season which is quite surprising. It’s surprising that they’ve been this to be honest tonight they were a .500 team. They are not and the odds are stacked against them in this one. As Yankees give the ball to their ace Gerrit Cole. He’s been very good going 6-3, with a 2.26 ERA. However he did allow five runs in his last start to the AL East leading Rays. That was the most he gave up in a start in the last two seasons. He said that he threw too many fastballs in the higher part of the strike zone. Cole has struggled his last four starts going 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA. The Twins offense isn’t bad either; they are 12th in the league in runs per game. After Cole’s questionable answer to if he’s ever used anything on the ball to cheat Cole will need a great start. Expect Cole to rise to occasion. The Yankees are fifth in the last five games in runs. Maybe the offense is finally getting going. Also the Twins will be sending out Randy Dobnak to start. He’s been bad in 2021 being 1-5, with 6.19 ERA. Expect the Yankees to get to him. I’m so confident in the pick to take the Yankees down 1.5 and take the under. Cole shuts the door on the Twins and Yankees score more than three.
Cubs vs Padres
Cubs +1.5 -110
Under 8
We are going back to the well tonight. The Cubs did us right last night and hopefully they can do the same. The Padres and Cubs are wrapping up a three game set on Wednesday. They have split the first two with the Cubs winning Tuesday 7-1. Our spread hit and we’ll go right back to it. It’ll be tough to take the +200 underdog for the Cubs as they will be matchup against their old teammate and Padres ace Yu Darvish. After finishing as runner up last season Darvie is right back at lights out work. Going 6-1 record in 2021 with a 2.25 ERA through 12 starts. Darvish has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 starts this year. He’s been shut down as the helm of the best pitching team in the MLB thus far. His slider has been lights out as teams only hitting .083 against the pitch. While hitters are only hitting .193 against Darvish as a whole. The Padres offense hasn’t been good lately and neither has the Cubs. They are both hot and cold both being cold at the moment. Giving the advantage to the Padres. The Cubs starter Jake Arrieta has been trying to find his form that he had the first time in Chicago. He showed signs of that early in the season. In his first five starts he had an ERA of 2.57. Then the next six he’s been very bad with a 8.28 ERA. May continued into June by allowing six runs and two home runs in just two innings against the Giants. He did play bad teams like the Pirates twice, struggling Mets lineup in April, and Brewers in April. Since playing very good offensives he struggles. However the Padres don’t have that right now. The Cubs are 29th in AVG over the last week the Padres are 28th. Arrieta can slow down the Padres offense. They struggle against sinkers. Arrieta throws sinkers more than half the time, actually 56% of the time. Fernando Tatis will be a problem tonight being third in the league in home runs with 17 and hits the sinker well. Going against what most think Darvish will do good so bet the under however Arrieta will pitch better than most expected. Take the spread and the under.
By Matthew Doherty
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