Goat Talk MLB Bets June 8th, 2021

 Goat Talk MLB Bets June 8th, 2021 

All bets through FanDuel 

Athletics vs Dbacks 

Under 8.5

The NL West last place Dbacks will play the AL West first place Athletics. The Dbacks were looking good in April then the injury bug hit the pitching staff and put them in last place. Where they have stayed. How bad are the Dbacks injuries? Well they have Jon Duplantier taking the hill. Duplantier has been a bad 0-1, with a 9.35 ERA, 8 strikeouts in 8 2/3 IP over 2 starts. He has 7.71 ERA in his starts in Triple A. You see what’s going on here? The Dbacks are down bad. Duplantier let up five runs in four innings to the Brewers last Thursday. The Dbacks offense averages over four runs a game that’s 16th in the league. That won’t be enough to bet they will upset the Athletics. Especially with how Oakland just finds players that are others scraps to play like they aren’t scraps. Jed Lowrie had 37 after two injury- filled years with the Mets. Lowrie has 28 RBI’s along with a .715 OPS on the season. They rank a slot better than the Dbacks being 15th in the league in runs a game with 4.40 runs a game. Chris Bassit takes the hill for Oakland. He’s been good for the Athletics going 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 74 IP over 12 starts. He struggled last time letting up four runs in four innings to the Mariners. He only gave up two runs to the Dbacks in five innings last time out and he’s been better than his last performance majority of the time. The A’s are 4-2 in the last six and 2-0 against the Dbacks in 2020. Expect Athletics to win but not score enough to do the over. Arizona won’t get the bat off their shoulder enough tonight to generate offense against the great Athletics bullpen and Bassit. Athletics may run but it won’t be 8 or 9. 

Mets vs Orioles 

Mets -120

The NL East leading Mets will continue their road trip with a quick stop in Baltimore. They will be taking on the AL East last place Baltimore Orioles in a two game set before heading home to play the Padres again. They will be sending the struggling David Peterson to the mound. Peterson is 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 44 1/3 IP over 10 starts. He’s had really good starts where the Mets didn’t score but there have also been starts where he just gives up a bunch of runs early. Peterson is a project but if he can get more consistent he’ll be a good fifth starter for the Mets or long reliever for the time being. However he gets the start. Peterson has not gotten through five innings in three of his last five starts, even giving up five runs in the first inning to the NL West last place Dbacks. Peterson has given up 16 runs in 20 innings across five starts. So picking the 9.5 over wouldn’t be crazy considering the Orioles are much better against the left handers hitting the over when a lefty throws in the last six games. Baltimore will be sending southpaw thrower Bruce Zimmerman who is coming off his best start against the Twins where he went 5.1 innings allowing two runs having more than 19 swings and misses in 7 strikeouts. Zimmerman got the win to end the Orioles fourteen game winning streak. The Mets offense has been average even with all the injuries but James McCann is hitting the cover off the ball. Take the moneyline Mets as slight favorites. The Orioles are the worst team in the MLB at home with a 10-20 record the Mets record are better at home but they just took two in San Diego. With Pete Alonso and Kevin Pillar back their offense will only get better. Peterson can give a good start against the Orioles and the Mets bullpen has been lights out in 2021. Take the Mets in this one. 

Braves vs Phillies 

Phillies -172

Over 9 

Today we have a divisional matchup in the NL East between the second place Braves and third place Phillies. It’s June but with only a .5 game separating these two teams in what could be a tight NL East and Wildcard race these games always matter. Both teams are coming off wins as the Braves beat the Dodgers 4-2 last night and the Phillies broke out the offense in a 12-6 win over the Nationals. These two offenses are both humming right now. The Phillies have averaged 7.2 runs over the last five games. While the Braves have averaged 4.6 the last five which is above league average. Definitely bet the over in this matchup the offenses are on fire, and we’ll get to the starters in a second. The Braves are sending Drew Smyly to the mound who is struggling in 2021 with a 2-3 record, 5.98 ERA, and only 43 strikeouts. He is prone to the long ball. Smyly’s 2.70 home runs per nine innings is the worst in the league. Giving up two home runs to the Phillies in his last start against them. How the Phillies offense is going expect them to get into that average Braves bullpen early. Especially since they rock lefties posting a .22 higher batting average, .25 higher on base percentage, .60 higher OPS. The Phillies will send their ace Aaron Nola to the mound who hasn’t been his dominant self in 2021. He will be facing the team that leads the league in home runs a game. Nola’s had an average 2021 where he posted a .500 4-4 record, with a 3.84 ERA, 78 strikeouts, in 70.1 innings pitched. He will be facing a red hot lineup as well. Expect him to give up a couple at least. That Phillies bullpen will give up a run or two like it always seems they do if Nola can’t chew innings. Even if he does, they might. However we do trust Nola more than Smyly bet Phillies and bet the over. 

Padres vs Cubs 

Cubs +1.5 -114

The NL West second place Padres will be taking on the NL Central second place Cubs on Tuesday night. The Padres won the game 9-4 after spitting a series with the Mets. Dinelson Lamet is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Seems to be more of a bullpen kind of day for me than the Padres. Dinelson is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 18 IP across 5 starts and 2 relief appearances. He hasn’t thrown over four innings since his elbow injury last September. He did put down the Cubs in order last Wednesday. He’ll look to do more of the same. He will be matching up against Zack Davies. Davies has had an inconsistent 2021 with a 2-3 record with a 4.94 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 over 54 2/3 IP spanning 12 starts. He got beat up by the Giants last time out, giving up four runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings. The Padres are ranked 11th in runs a game and won’t make that any easier for Davies. That’s why we say take the spread against the Padres. The game will be close considering the Padres will have a bullpen game while Cubs throw a solid starter. Davies does have the ability to chew up 5-6 innings. The Padres are 16-17 against the spread in 2021 bet they don’t go .500. 

By Matthew Doherty 

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