Goat Talk MLB Bets June 3rd, 2021

 Goat Talk MLB Bets June 3rd, 2021 

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Nats vs Braves 

Nats +126 

Today we have an afternoon contest between NL East rivals Braves and Nationals once again. We hit on them last time so we will go back to the well. The Nats took game two and three to go for the 3-1 series win against their division rivals on Thursday afternoon. They will be sending former really good pitcher Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin has struggled in 2021 being 3-4 in his starts with a 6.23 ERA. Yeah not good. Corbin has allowed five first innings home runs in 2021. He only allowed six his first nine years. When Corbin is bad he gets bad fast. Can Corbin bounce back? In a way. Corbin has the benefit of facing the struggling Braves offense. Braves key line up pieces are not hitting well at all. 2020 MVP Freddie Freeman is only hitting .230, Ozzie Albies has a .236 average, and young stud shortstop Dansby Swanson only hits .238. So yeah Corbin could go five to seven innings only allowing three or less. The Braves can’t hit water if they fell out of a boat lately. Atlanta moved 4.5 games back from the Mets for the NL East, and now are tied with the Phillies for second. The Braves have been struggling at the dish. It doesn’t help that starting catcher Travis d’Arnaud, and All Star outfielder Marcell Ozuna are both going to the 60 day IL. The Braves woes continue in 2021. The Braves bring up Tucker Davidson to make his second start of the season. In his first start against the Mets on May 18th he allowed three runs in six innings against the injured lineup Mets. Davidson is more than likely making a spot start but he’ll have a tough task as the Nats have hit the ball against the Braves. Putting up 16 runs in the last two games combined. Take the Nats to take three away from the Braves because we trust a struggling Corbin against a struggling Braves lineup more than we trust Davidson against the Nats lineup. 

Red Sox vs Astros 

Over 9

Okay not going to lie no idea who’s going to win this one. The Astros took the first three games, and now are going for the four game sweep. Houston looks to have the Red Sox under control. 2021 has taught us though that’s when the Red Sox take the last game staying relevant. So we’ll go with the over in the matchup. Seems like the safe bet here, and easy bet. The Astros may have taken a 2-1 game last night but don’t see these offenses stay down too long. Both top 5 in runs, hits, slugging percentage, batting average, and on base plus slugging. Boston and Houston have hit the cover off the ball in 2021. The Astros will send Jake Odorizzi to the hill. This game will be Odorizzi’s fifth start because in his third start he suffered a right pronator strain. Sidelined him for a whole month. He came back against the Padres on Saturday to have his best start. Odorizzi only allowed a run on three hits in 5 1/3 innings, throwing 87 pitches. The Padres are a tall take but the Red Sox are a taller one in 2021. They average 5.3 runs a game that’s third in the MLB. Odorizzi didn’t look great before the injury that’s why he has an above six ERA with an 0-2 record. Boston will get Odorizzi for at least two to four runs is my guess. Boston will send Martin Perez who has a 3-2, 3.55 ERA, with 48 strikeouts in 2021. Perez has been pitching great in his last six starts with a going 3-1 record with a 2.43 ERA. He pitches well on the road with a 1-1 record, and a 2.91 ERA. Perez has been good but the Astros are an offensive juggernaut right now. Perez could have a quality start but will give him runs. Take the over between these two offenses. 

Tigers vs White Sox 

Tigers +172

Under 8

You could go with the leading AL Central White Sox but at -198 odds not a lot of cash there unless you parlay. So we’ll go with the Tigers. Yes we believe in the bottom of the barrel Tigers for some reason. However the starting matchup has the ability to be a really good one. The South Side Chicago White Sox will be sending AL CY Young Candidate Lance Lynn to the mound. Lance Lynn doesn’t go crazy deep into games but he does get the job done. Lynn was acquired by the Sox in the 2020-2021 offseason. He averages 5 2/3 innings a start with nine appearances. He doesn’t have enough innings right now to qualify for ERA leader. If he did Lynn would be third in the MLB and first in the American League. Lynn has been lights out for Chicago. His 1.20 ERA in 52.2 innings pitched is impressive and will be a lot for a bad Tigers offense. Detroit is 29th in runs, 26th in hits, 27th in slugging percentage, and 27th in on base percentage. Not a very good offense. Then why trust the Tigers? Well they are coming off a sweep of the Yankees. Also just put ten up on the Brewers last night. In the last 6 games the Tigers are top ten in all the categories we just discussed. Teams hit their groove the Tigers offense is right now. Not saying they’ll smash Lynn but they’ll make him work hard for those six innings. Detroit is sending Casey Mize would looks to be young and very promising. He leads the Tiger in WAR with a 1.7 wins above replacement. Mize’s 3-3 record and 3.28 ERA is impressive considering the Tigers hitting stats for the year. He pitched well last time out against the Yankees going five innings only allowing one-run ball with seven strikeouts. The White Sox are a very good offense but the last 5 games are very average in nearly every hitting metric. Mize can toss a gem with the red hot Tigers offense and take the upset in the opening game of this four game set. 

By Matthew Doherty 

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