Goat Talk MLB Bets June 17, 2021

 Goat Talk MLB Bets June 17, 2021 

Bets on FanDuel and Stakes 

Cardinals vs Braves 

Cardinals +158 

Under 9 

We start down in Atlanta as the Cardinals and Braves will play a four game set. These teams are both 4-6 in their last ten games. The Cardinals are coming off a sweep of the Marlins. Which was a great response because they were in a bad slump after being swept by the Cubs. However the Cardinals barred down and are keeping pace in the tight NL Central. The Braves are coming off losing both games in a 2 game series against the Red Sox. They lost both games 10-8. The Braves are tied for third, sitting 7.5 games back of the red hot Mets in the NL East. The away squad the Cardinals will send John Grant to the hill for the start. Hill is 4-4 in 2021, with a 3.36 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts in 56.1 IP. Expect Grant to only go 4-6 innings in his starts but Grant can slow down the Braves offense. Atlanta has a lot of talent, there's no denying that. It’s actually surprising how disappointing they’ve been in 2021. Both teams are very injured, remember. Cardinals are without multiple starting pitcher and bullpen help. The Braves are missing starting outfielder Marcell Ozuna and starting catcher Travis d’Arnaud. That’s just two of the many injuries they have. So Grant won’t be facing a full Braves lineup. That doesn’t change the fact Grant will have to somehow keep the Braves in the ballpark ranking 4th in the MLB in home runs. The young and talented Ronald Acuna JR leads the charge with 18, averaging one every 12.6 at-bats. The Braves will be sending over Charlie Morton to the hill. Morton came over from Tampa Bay in the offseason and hasn’t been what people expected. Morton has struggled often in 2021. He’s not what he was in Tampa Bay at all. Morton has a 5-3 record, a 5.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts in 66 IP. In the month of June he pitched 9 innings and allowed 6 earned runs. We hope his struggles continue in a way. We think they will. The Braves aren’t the greatest home team; they have a losing record being 17-19 at home. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will have to step up more. Goldschmidt really needs to get going. His walk off home run the other night is a good starting point however he has to be better than he has. One big surprise for the Cardinals this season is Tyler O’Neill who leads the club with a .614 slugging percentage, including 26 extra-base hits and 15 home runs. Arenado has hit well with 33 extra base hits which leads the club, and is batting .273. The Cardinals are a good team. We think this is a good bet with good money. The Cardinals are getting back into a groove. The Braves are struggling. We think Grant can go 5-6 innings then let the Cardinals good bullpen close the door. If the score was 8.5 we’d take the over but since it’s 9 take the under. 

White Sox vs Astros 

White Sox +110 

Over 9 

A future playoff matchup preview we may have going on in Houston tonight. The Astros will be taking on the AL Central leading Chicago White Sox. Both teams have power house offenses which may lead to a shootout on Texas soil. The White Sox are coming off taking two games of three from the AL East leading Rays. Chicago is 8-2 in their last ten games which gives them a 4.5 lead in the AL Central. The White Sox are playing very well. They even have a winning record on the road with a 16-13 record. Tony LaRussa may have the best team in the American League. However the White Sox will have a tall task taking a game on the road against the Houston Astros. The Astros are 22-13 at home. They are second in the AL West being 2.5 games behind the Athletics. They face the White Sox’s starter Dylan Cease tonight. Cease is a 25 year old starter with a 5-2 record that owns a 3.38 ERA, and 85 strikeouts in 66.2 IP this season. This will be the second time he’s seen the explosive offensive of the Astros. Cease went 5 innings last time with 2 runs allowed against the Tigers. He will need to be better to make that 2 runs not become 6 runs against a team like the Astros. The Astros rank first in the MLB in runs, hits, batting average, OPS, they don’t strike out ranking first, and are seventh in home runs. Yeah the Astros can smack the ball. They will look to get run support for their starter Jose Urquidy. Urquidy has gone 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 62 IP. His last start he went seven innings allowing three runs on four hits. A good start against the last place Twins. Urquidy has a similar problem Cease does. He has to be better to win. The White Sox offense ain’t too bad either, ranking in the MLB fifth in runs, sixth in hits, fourth in batting average, and eight in OPS. We don’t think both starters can slow down both these offenses so take the over. We believe both offenses could break out but with the red hot Sox being the favorite, take the moneyline Sox. The White Sox are 5-1 against the AL West and 6-1 in a series home opener. Take the Sox down in Houston tonight. 

Reds vs Padres 

Reds +152 

To be honest I never really saw the Reds busting out again after that amazing start to season. The Reds seemed to me just that team that starts hot and dies out later. Well here we are. The Reds have caught fire again. They are 8-2 over their last ten, winning 13 of their last 16, and managed to only be two games back from the top of the NL Central. They will send the crafty lefty Wade Miley to the hill. Miley has made 11 starts in 2021 going 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 61 2/3 IP. Miley threw a no hitter earlier in the season. Miley has been pitching great lately only allowing 3 earned runs in his last 18 innings. Miley is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA over his last four starts. His cutter and changeup have been working great. He will be facing a struggling Padres team. The Reds bullpen has been terrible in 2021 ranking last in ERA. However over the last week they are first in reliever ERA. Plus that elite offense developed by the Reds will more than likely have run support. Miley will be going against a struggling Padres team. The Padres are 2-8 in their last ten, just got swept by the 4th place Rockies, and now are 6 games back of the NL West lead. Joe Musgrove will look to right the ship for the Padres tonight. Musgrove also threw a no hitter in 2021. The first of the season and first in Padres history. Musgrove has gone 4-6 with a 2.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 72 IP over 12 starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove will even have to right his own ship allowing 3 earned runs in his last three starts. He will be pitching at home in San Diego. He does well in his hometown owning a 2.61 career ERA in eight starts at Petco Park. He will have to try to silent that Reds lineup as his lineup continues to struggle. We think everything is going the Reds way right now seems like easy money for the moment. Bet the Reds break into that Padres bullpen, Miley gives a good start, and the Reds continue to stay hot as the Padres continue to struggle. 

Brewers vs Rockies 

Brewers-152 

Under 10.5 

The fourth and final pick belongs in the Rockies vs Brewers game. The Rockies are probably feeling good right now after sweeping the Padres at home. They are 5-5 in their last ten which for them is great considering they are 15.5 games out of first in the NL West being 13 games below .500 on the season. They will be taking on the NL Central lead Brewers on Thursday. Who are 6-4 in their last ten, and after sweeping the Pirates got swept right back by the Reds. Both teams are coming off sweeps being the A side the other being the B side. The Brewers will look to get back into form as they’ve been lucky the Cubs are getting swept themselves. They will send ace Brandon Woodruff to the mound today in the thin air elevated Denver, Colorado. Woodruff has been great for the Brewers being 5-2, with a 1.52 ERA, and 97 SO in 83 IP. In his last start against the Pirates he went seven innings, allowing two earned runs while surrendering four hits. When the Brewers are the moneyline favorite Woodruff deliverers in 2021. The Brewers have gone 6-3 record in Woodruff’s nine starts when favored. He will be playing a below average offense in the Rockies which ranks 15th in the league with 298 total runs scored while batting .245 as a unit. The Rockies has a collective .394 slugging percentage  that ranks 14th in the MLB, and even in a ballpark where the ball flies out quickly and often the Rockies have only hit a total of 61 home runs which is 28th in the league. Only three batters for the Rockies have seen Woodruff. Advantage Brewers. The Brewers will be taking on Rockies starter German Marquez. Marquez has started 15 times in 2021 going 4-6, with a 4.60 ERA, with a 9.4 K/9, pitching 76.1 innings. Marquez was pitching great before his last start having a 1.89 ERA over his previous six starts. However against the Reds last time out he matched a season high with eight earned runs in just five innings pitched. Marquez won’t be pitching against an overpowering offense in the Brewers. The Brewers rank 23rd in MLB with 269 runs scored this season. They have a .210 batting average in 2021 with 80 home runs which is 14th in the league. The Brewers will look to take advantage of the struggling Cubs and fight off a red hot Reds team. A win here will do that. Expect Woodruff to get his club back on track with a lights out performance in Denver tonight. 

By Matthew Doherty 

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