Goat Talk MLB Bets June 15th, 2021

 Goat Talk MLB Bets June 15th, 2021 

All bets through FanDuel or Stakes 

Marlins vs Cardinals 

Cardinals -120 

Under 8 

It’s game two of a three game set in St. Louis between the Cardinals and the Miami Marlins. The Cardinals have won all four games against the Marlins in 2021 including a win on Monday night. St. Louis who was first in the NL Central two weeks ago now sit in fourth in the division five games out of first. They’ve gone 2-8 over the last ten in a close division and the games in June start to really matter. They need a win over a last place Marlins team. The Marlins are at the bottom of the NL East as expected but are only eight games out. They look to keep pace with the NL East leading Mets with a win against a desperate Cardinals team. However, good news for the Cardinals is the job will be easier as the Marlins are without four starters with Brian Anderson, Garrett Cooper, Corey Dickerson, and Miguel Rojas all missing time. That’s obviously not good for a Marlins lineup that’s already not very good, ranking 24th in runs, 28th in home runs, 27th in strikeouts, and 25th in OPS. That struggling Marlins lineup will face Cardinals starter Kwang Hyun Kim who is coming off back tightness and missed his last start due to the injury. Kim hasn’t had a great 2021  with a 1-4 record, a 4.05 ERA, and 36 SO in 40 IP. Kim needs to have a good start for his team to get back on track. He will need help from his struggling Cardinals lineup. The Cardinals are missing center fielder Harrison Bader who has been missed in the field but it’s more of the pitching that is hurt for St. Louis. Missing four starters and a couple relievers. Kim needs a good start for more rest for the bullpen. Also the Cardinals lineup needs to break out against a tough matchup in Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. Rogers, a very good young starter for the Marlins. Rogers has gone 7-3 in his starts, with a 2.02 ERA, with 89 SO in 75.2 IP. Rogers has gone at least six innings in his last four starts. One of the only bright spots for the Marlins in 2021 is Rogers. He will need a good start with an injured lineup. The Cardinals key to the game is Paul Goldschmidt finding his stroke. The Cardinals power first baseman has been on the decline in 2021 only hitting .248, with 8 home runs, and only 31 RBIs. He needs to be better. We think with the bad lineup of the Marlins and good pitching of Rogers the game will be low scoring so definitely take the under. However, the Cardinals win the game in a 3-2, 2-1 contest. 

Tigers vs Royals 

Tigers +122 

Over 8.5 

The Tigers took game one of a three game set against their division rival Royals. The Tigers are in fourth in the AL Central being 14.5 games back while the Royals are third being 10.5 games back. The Royals have been bad lately after losing 10-3 last night to the Tigers they are now 1-9 in their last ten. The Royals offense will need to get going on some way. Luckily the game is at home for the Royals as they play much better back home in Kansas City. They average 4.8 runs per game at home when on the road they average barely 3 runs a game. It’s not like the offense is terrible; they are 17th in runs, 11th in hits, 3rd in stolen bases, and 17th in OPS. Led by catcher Salvador Perez who has put up a team high batting average of .285, while leading the Royals in home runs (16) and runs batted in (43). The offense is an average offense which should be enough to beat a not so good Tigers team. Especially behind starter Mike Minor. Minor had his best start of the season last time out against the AL West leading Athletics by allowing one run on three hits in seven innings, with just one walk and eight strikeouts. Minor has been pitching well for the Royals lately, his 5-3 record, and 4.50 ERA don’t reflect how good he’s been for the Royals in May and June. Minor will be going up against a Tigers offense that just put up ten runs. However isn’t great with only a .225 team batting average which ranks 25th in the league with 488 total hits, and 26th in the MLB  with 253 runs scored. They have the 24th-ranked slugging percentage (.375) and rank 17th in home runs (72) in all of MLB. The Tigers offense is not good. They still may need a good start from their starter Casey Mize to win the game. Mize has gone 3-4, with a 3.44 ERA in 2021. In his first two June starts he allowed six runs which is more than he allowed in the whole month of May. Mize pitched well against the Royals in May with a 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball at Kauffman Stadium on May 23. The Tigers are 6-4 when they are the underdog when Mize starts. The game will be low scoring so take the 8.5 under. However choosing the winner is tough. Minor has pitched well but the Royals have been so bad lately. The Tigers aren’t trustworthy but the +122 seems nice but you need to win to get it. Mize is an average starter  but the Royals offense isn’t great. Do we bet the Royals get going behind a Minors start? No, we think the Tigers take game 2 in a close contest. 

Mets vs Cubs 

Under 8.5 -110 

1 Runs first innings +360

The Mets and the Cubs will go at it in another game two of a three game contest. The Mets took game one on Monday with a 5-2 victory. Where Mets starter David Peterson had a comeback start he really needed. The Cubs and Mets have both been playing good baseball as of late. Both are 6-4 in the last ten games. The Cubs are tied atop the NL Central with the Brewers while the Mets are four games up on the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Mets have been battling injuries during May and June but figure out how to get it done. After taking two from the Padres over the weekend they take the opener against the Cubs who are coming off a sweep of the Cardinals. Now the Mets will be sending Taijuan Walker to the hill to try to take game two of the series. Walker has been the pickup of the offseason for the Mets. They pay him nearly nothing while he’s been pitching great. His 2.07 ERA ranks 7th in the MLB. He’s one of three Mets starting pitchers that rank in the top 15 in ERA. The Mets ERA ranks second in the MLB.  Walker has gone 5-2 in his starts with 61 IP, and 8.9 strikeouts a game. Walker has certainly been effective. His matchup against Joc Pederson should be good. Pederson has 17 at bats against Walker with a batting average of .417 with seven hits. Pederson also has been raking lately. Walker will have plenty to handle with this Cubs lineup. Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant has found his groove at the dish again. He’s hitting .292 with 13 home runs and 39 RBI in 2021. That’s something the Cubs really needed to contend. Then to boot Anthony Rizzo has been playing great as well in a contract year. However he will need to be better if wants to up his pay. Rizzo’s batting average, hits and home run totals rank outside of the top 25 among all qualified batters in the league. The Cubs lineup as a whole averages 4.8 runs a game which ranks 11th in the league. The Cubs lineup is deep, and to be honest will need to get to Walker to have a chance. Even then with how good the Mets bullpen has been that ranks top three in ERA that still might not be enough. The Mets have the best league record at home. The Cubs are 14-18 on the road. The Cubs will give the ball to Alec Mills tonight to try and get an uncommon win on the road. Mills won’t be facing the Mets best as Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, JD Davis, and Jeff McNeil are all out. The Mets bats have struggled only ranking 27th in runs, 25th in hits, 21st in home runs, and 18th in OPS. Mills has struggled in 2021 as well though. He missed some time with back tightness but is back tonight. Get it? Back hurts now he’s back. Okay whatever anyways Mills hasn’t been great. He’s 2-0, with a high 6.08 ERA, with only 15 SO in 23.2 IP. The Mets offense could get to Mills with batters like Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor still in the lineup. Either way it’s too hard to guess who will win. Both these teams are good and trending in the right direction. With Walker on the mound and Mets hurt lineup we feel fine with the under. However Mills is a bullpen pitcher he could give up a run in the first or the Cubs lineup could score first as well. We think the +350 odds for a first inning run for any team is pretty good odds. Good game in Flushing bet to add some fun. 

Angels vs Athletics 

Angels +108

Over 8

Ohant Homerun/win +500

We will give our last free pick to the AL West matchup between the division leading Athletics and the red hot Angels. The Athletics took game one of the series with an 8-5 win on Monday. The Angels had a very bad May but have responded well in June being 9-3 in the month even without Mike Trout. They’ve gone 8-2 over the last ten. However the Athletics have been just as hot over the last ten being 8-2 as well. The Athletics are seven games up on the Angels and will look to extend that lead tonight. Athletics will send Frankie Montas to the hill to extend the lead. Montas has gone 6-6 in 14 starts, with a 4.37 ERA, with 73 strikeouts in 70 IP. Montas had a quality start last time out going 6 1/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up five hits. He will be facing a very tough Angels lineup. The Angels are eighth in the league with 320 total runs scored while batting .253 as a team. Montas struggles against power hitters. His  opponents have a collective .428 slugging percentage (sixth in MLB action) and has hit a total of 85 home runs (eighth in the league). That’s why Ohanti hits a homer. He's 5th in home runs with 17. It’s not crazy to think he could take Montas deep. However the Angels have the lineup to match up against Montas. Also may call up Jared Walsh who has been doing great since being called up to the big leagues. Walsh leads Los Angeles in runs batted in with 45 while batting .291. So yes the Angels have the offense to win. However Angels starter Andrew Heaney will have to give them a solid start. Heaney has gone 4-3 in 12 starts, with a 4.37 ERA, in 57.2 IP while averaging 10.8 strikeouts every nine innings. Heaney looked good against the struggling Royals last time out allowing only one earned run on six hits in 6 2/3 innings. He will play a much better lineup in the Athletics. Who ranks 9th in the MLB in runs, 13th in hits, and 7th in home runs. However the Athletics actually get worse at home hitting wise than they do on the road. They average 4.2 runs at home and 4.8 away. Oakland’s Colosseum isn’t built for runs and that shows. Nonetheless the ball park is spread out with a big outfield. That’s perfect for both these teams as the Angels rank 4th in doubles and the Athletics rank 8th. We don’t think it’ll be a good night for the starters to be honest. However we think the Angels will pull out the slug fest. 

By Matthew Doherty 

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