Where The UFC Lightweight Division Stands Today

 Where The UFC Lightweight Division Stands Today 

We had a great card last Saturday when the UFC delivered UFC 262 to the world on pay per view. In the main event we saw the UFC Lightweight Championship on the line for the first time since former unbeaten champion Khabib Nurmagomedov retired early after his father’s death. Nurmagomedov was a dominant champion that finished with a record of 29-0. He left dominant in his last performance with a second round submission of Justin Gaethje. However as we learned with all legends the sport moves on. The sport did that last Saturday when Charles Oliveira who was riding a eight fight winning streak and holds claim to the most submission finishes in UFC history took on former Bellator Lightweight champion Michael Chandler. Who is trying to prove that his long reign at Bellator was real and he was the true king of the Lightweight division the whole time even though he wasn’t in the UFC. The matchup was perfect: Wrestler vs Jiu Jitsu, both have great stand up, knockout power, classic USA vs Brazil, full arena, no better way to unify the Lightweight belt. The fight was only five minutes and a couple seconds but the fight had action throughout. Oliveira took the first after a dominant 2-3 minutes on the ground after a beautiful blast double to take Chandler down. Then when Chandler got up he started hitting big shots. Even stunning Oliveira to his butt to the point where many thought the fight was going to be stopped. Probably stealing the round for Chandler. However Oliveira survived to see another five minutes. Didn’t take long for Oliveira to get right back into the fight. He stuns Chandler 15 seconds into the first and finishes him off with ground and pound. Declaring Charles Oliveira the new king of the 155 pounds division. 

We live now in the Oliveira era of the UFC Lightweight division. Who would've thought that Oliveira would be the one to make it out of the Lightweight gauntlet two to three years ago? Not many people would have called that. We don't know how long the run could last but we know it’ll have at least one exciting moment. Now that we have a champion now let’s look at the rest of the division. Oliveira will have to defend the belt someday which he will. Maybe multiple times. We don’t know but we do know who could be coming up right now. Let’s break down the whole division. Let’s see where the best division in the world stands. Who’s next? Who’s a gatekeeper? Who’s a contender? Who’s a pretender? All these questions will get answered right now. 

The 20-16th Ranked UFC Lightweight by MMARankings 

20 Magomed Mustafev

19 Brad Riddell

18 Alexander Hernández 

17 Arman Tsarukyan 

16 Grant Dawson 

Let's start with the fighters the UFC chooses not to rank. These guys are usually big in between guys. Meaning they are either rising and thriving through this part of the rankings. Or they are at the end of their career and falling out. For example Cerrone being 18th ranked is different from Sean O’Malley being ranked 18th at this point in their careers. Let’s check out the guys who just miss the rankings and what matchups could make some sense. Let's say the Magomed Mustafev is actually the 20th ranked Lightweight in the UFC. His last fight was a loss to Brad Riddell in February of 2020 who is just ahead of him which leaves him with some problems to go up in the rankings. However his last two meetings were cancelled. He was suppose to fight Renato Moicano in one of those cancelled bouts which could still happen. Would be a good matchup for either one considering their both coming off losses. We need to find out who’s the contender and pretender right now. That’s the fight to make for me at the moment. Since we brought up Brad Riddell we can discuss him. Riddell is riding a six fight winning streak since 2018. He’s rising in the rankings and he will be fighting 14th ranked Drew Dober in June. Fight makes sense, Riddell is hot and Dober got dominated out last time against Islam Makhachev. Dober has an all around game. Riddell has a good kickboxing background with an improving ground game in Auckland, New Zealand. The Dober fight makes sense. Gives Riddell a chance to dive into the rankings. The man who just fell out of the ranking with his last loss Alexander Hernández who is coming off a loss in February to Thiago Moises. Hernández was a rising star when he came into the UFC. Riding an eight fight winning streak with a win over Beneil Dariush who just beat up Tony Ferguson last Saturday. Both those guys were on different tracks at the time. After Hernández got beat up by Cerrone in 2018 after talking really crazy to Cowboy he hasn’t been the same. He’s 2-2 with 4 cancelled bouts. Hey, maybe Magomed Mustafev could work here as well. In reality you don’t want Hernández to lose another bout but if he does to Mustafaev then maybe he doesn’t have the guts to be the best. However if he whips up on Mustafev you could again push him. Now thinking about it this may be the fight to make. Wouldn’t give Hernández another ranked opponent he needs a confidence boost in some way. Next the Armenian Arman Tsarukyan could also be a fight for Hernández but for me Thiago Moises would be a good fight for Tsarukyan. That’s a ranked opponent for Tsarukyan. He’s on a three fight winning streak with his last loss coming to tenth ranked Islam Makhachev. Besides that tough loss Tsarukyan has been dominant you have to give someone above him. Or someone such as Alexander Hernández for a good pop on the card or a name that stands out to casuals. With the winner getting a ranked fight next. Hey even sixteenth ranked Grant Dawson could give interest. He’s just coming off a win in March. Dawson is on an eight fight winning streak finishing six of his last eight fights. He needs a challenge. Tsarukyan could be that challenge. Or even a Thiago Moises. Yes Moises will have to fight after his upcoming fight with Islam Makhachev. Nonetheless none of these guys are booked and he’s booked in June if he loses expect him to go back for one of these guys. There’s a lot of fights that you could make for the just outside part of the top fifteen. This also goes to show how good the Lightweight division is they have no veterans sliding down at these rankings they have young killers. Who could pop in the rankings at any point in 2021. 

15th ranked-11th ranked Lightweight by UFC Rankings 

15 Thiago Moises 

14 Drew Dober

13 Diego Ferreira

12 Kevin Lee

11 Gregor Gillespie 

Now here we are the ones that are worthy to be ranked by the UFC. We already got into all the matchups that are good for Thiago Moises after the Islam Makhachev fight. If he loses the matchups that we discussed would make sense. If he wins however he would need someone above him. Especially since Makhachev looks to be another Russian monster. Drew Dober has a fight scheduled as discussed before so we can skip over him. The thirteenth ranked Diego Ferreira is coming off a loss last week to the now eleventh ranked Gregor Gillespie. That’s Ferreira's second loss in a row. If Kevin Lee ever decides to come out of his cave to fight Lee would be a great matchup for Ferreira. Ferreira has good Jiu-Jitsu and Lee has good wrestling. They both can stand the fight makes a lot of sense. Since Lee has missed over a year now. Lee lost to Oliveira, not too bad of a guy to lose too. Lee can really fight anyone in the top fifteen to be honest. For Ferreira though he can’t go far beyond Lee in the rankings. Arman Tsarukyan and Grant Dawson are really good matchups right now. Especially since Ferreira is coming off two losses to two ranked opponents. Give him a fight outside of the rankings and give either of the red hot fighters a shot at a ranked fighter. Ferreira has options. Kevin Lee? Like before, just fight someday. Someone who Lee sent to the moon the eleventh ranked Gregor Gillespie has put himself in good position since that stunning knockout by Lee to get a top ten fight. To be honest Gillespie against Dan Hooker or Paul Felder interests me a lot. Hooker just got knocked dead by Michael Chandler. He needs a competitive fight but one he could win. Gillespie has a lot of tools that can bring Hooker some problems on the ground. Hooker could give him problems on the feet. Felder is the same way. Felder is coming off a loss. Felder lost to Hooker if you don’t think Gillespie is ready for Hooker which he definitely is either way Felder or Hooker should be next for Gillespie. Hey even Rafael Dos Anjos would interest me. In my opinion Gregor Gillespie is the real deal, he just needs to prove that. 

10th-6th ranked UFC Lightweight by UFC 

Rankings 

10 Islam Makhachev

9 Paul Felder 

8 Dan Hooker 

7 Rafael Dos Anjos 

6 Tony Ferguson 

Now we are in some of the elites in the top ten in the Lightweight division. The tenth ranked probably the next Khabib his best friend Islam Makhachev looked really dominant against Drew Dober. He’s looked so good in the UFC and personally surprised that they gave him Thiago Moises who is fifteenth ranked. Actually lower ranked than Dober so in reality you would think he would want someone else higher. Apparently he takes who they give him there is something to respect in that. If Makhachev dominates, expect a top ten fight for him. Paul Felder is coming off two losses to the two guys ahead of him. He lost the Dos Anjos fight on short notice but still it's a fight he lost. They could fight again but RDA's career doesn’t make much sense. Felder could be waiting for a Makhachev. Felder has the last win over Oliveira but doesn’t have any rights to a title shot. The only fight up in the rankings for Felder that makes sense is the Tony Ferguson fight considering how Ferguson has panned against top five talent lately. Honestly that would be a great fight. Felder against Ferguson. Gregor Gillespie or Kevin Lee would also be some good fights for Felder. Some guys back in the rankings with something to prove. All interesting fights for Felder. Dan Hooker is next up and needs a comeback win for his confidence. He lost a bloody fight with Dustin Piorier who’s ranked one and got knocked out by Chandler who just fought for the belt. Hooker beat Felder and to be honest the only fight back in the rankings for him is  Gregor Gillespie. He should go up to fight Tony Ferguson. That fight would be good for him now.   Even RDA would be a nice matchup for Hooker. He doesn’t need a win but a three fight losing streak in the Lightweight will hurt you. Hooker needs to use his stand up to his advantage. He can out-strike either of those guys. He just needs to work on takedown defense or his ground game in general. He’s 31 so not in a huge rush but he is in his prime for a fighter probably better to continue working. Okay for me though in reality RDA should fight for a fight with Tony Ferguson. Ferguson the worst he’s been ever this is RDA’s change to get into the top or an elite group of the an already elite group. A Ferguson win would show he’s a top six fighter. Then he would be a fight or maybe two from a title shot. RDA will complete an amazing come back. Yes he could take anyone like Chandler, Beneil Dariush, or Gaethje in the top 5 but Ferguson seem like the best matchup and makes the most sense for me. For both of these veterans career. Tony Ferguson well kind of been discussed throughout the piece as bait to get into the top five. As a gatekeeper. Kind of what he is unless he pulls off an amazing run at the end of his career. Which personally don’t see happening. If Ferguson continents to fight he should wait for the Islam Makhachev honestly. You never fought Khabib against his best friend. Why not? Make fun fights for Ferguson. RDA or Hooker would be fun but if it was up to me fun fights for Ferguson that fight with Makhachev seems to be a lot of fun. 

5th ranked- Champion UFC Lightweight by UFC Rankings 

5 Conor McGregor 

4 Michael Chandler 

3 Beneil Dariush 

2 Justin Gaethje 

1 Dustin Poirier 

C Charles Oliveira 

Now we are here the ones the casual love to talk about and love to watch. The elite of the elite the ones next up for a title shot. Well Conor McGregor is easy he’s got a number one contender bout schedule in July with Dustin Poirier in their trilogy fight. If McGregor loses he gets a fight with Nate Diaz. He wins, he fights for the belt, it's pretty simple. If Poirier wins he fights for the belt. He loses he probably has Chandler or rematch with Gaethje waiting for him. Poirier showed he’s elite, he’s getting a money fight, he just needs the belt, and damn what a career for Poirier. Michael Chandler just lost as we know. He’s 37 and says he’s going to be champ. So being active will be important for Chandler. He should hope for the loser of Poirier or McGregor. However Gaethje is there waiting for a fight. That fight would be awesome. They both can wrestle and have knockout power. We know how Gaethje fights nothing short of exciting. Chandler against Gaethje for my own selfish pleasures. Beneil Dariush has also made his own claim to a top five fight. Chandler has many options. For Justin Gaethje he just needs to fight. He looked bad against Khabib. He needs to redeem himself. A win over Chandler could do that, him against any top five again really makes, even him against like an RDA or Hooker makes sense. All those fights are fun because Gaethje is involved. Most fights with Gaethje are fun. You know the ones he doesn’t roll over in. Anyways that’s not here nor there Gaethje even after the title loss is probably one or two fights away from a title shot. Now for Charles Oliveira to be honest he should just wait for the outcome of the trilogy between McGregor and Poirier. That’s a good money fight either way and the matchup makes sense. Obviously McGregor is the money fight you want and you can beat him. Piorier is more of a legacy fight. Just the guy up next for the title shot. Oliveira can wait for these other Lightweights to scrap. That’s the right you get as champion when you’re most active. 

Matt the Matchmaker 

Now my favorite part of the piece is where Matt gets to play matchmaker. The great matchmaker of the north that is myself will book the fighters based on what is best for their career, where they are actually at, and what’s good for the division. Yes sometimes a fun fight will be booked but that’s rare that’s why it’s called a fun fight. No we don’t book the ones that have already been booked. Have some realistic matter in your imagination. 

20 Magomed Mustafaev vs 18 Alexander Hernández

19 Brad Riddell vs 14 Drew Dober (June 12, 2021)

18 Alexander Hernández vs 20 Magomed Mustafaev

17 Arman Tsarukyan vs 13 Diego Ferreira

16 Grant Dawson vs 12 Kevin Lee

15 Thiago Moises vs 10 Islam Makhachev (July 17th, 2021)

14 Drew Dober vs 19 Brad Riddell ( June 12th, 2021) 

13 Diego Ferreira vs 17 Arman Tsarukyan

12 Kevin Lee vs 16 Grant Dawson 

11 Gregor Gillespie vs 8 Dan Hooker

10 Islam Makhachev vs 15 Thiago Moises (July 17th, 2021) 

9 Paul Felder vs 6 Tony Ferguson 

8 Dan Hooker vs 11 Gregor Gillespie

7 Rafael Dos Anjos vs 2 Justin Gaethje

6 Tony Ferguson vs 9 Paul Felder

5 Conor McGregor vs 1 Dustin Poirier (5 Conor McGregor 

4 Michael Chandler vs 3 Beneil Dariush

3 Beneil Dariush vs 4 Michael Chandler 

2 Justin Gaethje vs 7 Rafael Dos Anjos 

1 Dustin Poirier vs 5 Conor McGregor (5 Conor McGregor)

C Charles Oliveira vs winner of McGregor/Poirier 

By Matthew Doherty 

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