Goat Talk MLB Bets 05/25/2021

 Goat Talk MLB Bets 05/25/2021 

Phillies vs Marlins 

Marlins -130 ML

The streaky Marlins are winners of five of their last six, and now are only a game out of first in the NL East. Being a game behind the hurt Mets, and tied with the can’t figure it out Braves. However the Marlins can benefit from the misfortune of their fellow NL East rival. Those teams certainly have for the better half of 6 to 8 years now. The Marlins took a 9-6 contest last night against the Phillies but tonight we think these Marlins luck is going to continue. The Phillies will send Vince Velasquez to mound who was scratched from his last start due to right index finger numbness. He will take the ball today against a red hot Marlins lineup. Velasquez has had an above par season being 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 30 innings pitched. He’s only allowed a combined two runs in his last three starts. The Marlins offense is hot but don’t expect this run to last. They are still 27th in OBP, bottom half in the league in hits, 22nd runs per game the Marlins aren’t a good offense just a run in May. Miami might be feeling good with how their starter Sandy Alcantara pitched last time out. With six scoreless innings against these Phillies. With only allowing two hits while striking out nine. Alcantara has been really good against the Phillies in his career being 5-1 with a 2.44 ERA. The Marlins are 7-3 in their last ten at home while the Phillies struggle on the road being 19-39 in their 58 games on the road. So why would Matt bet on the Marlins? Why not? Have you seen all these stats? The Marlins are playing their best ball right now. Streaks matter in baseball. The Phillies continue to take losses being 3-7 in their last ten. They have injuries and the Marlins are getting healthy. Take the small favorite Miami. 

Dodgers vs Astros 

-104 ML Dodgers 

Here we go of course we have to bet on the rematch of the 2017 World Series of the Dodgers and Astros. The first matchup since the scandal of the Astros sign stealing broke. Clayton Kershaw will take the hill against former Dodgers and now Astros pitcher Zack Greinke. The stadium will be packed tonight which is very fitting. The Dodgers are only a half game out of first behind the Padres in the NL West. Houston even after a rough series against their in-state rival Rangers are only a game out of first behind the Athletics in the AL West. My bet is that the red hot Dodgers are seeking revenge. Starter Kershaw in his ten starts is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, in 56.2 IP. The Dodgers are 6-3 in Kershaw starts. The Dodgers are coming in on a seven game winning streak after sweeping their division rival Giants. They are third in the league in runs averaged per game, seventh in team batting average, and one of the best built lineups even with injuries. Bet the Dodgers because they might be the best team in baseball, they are hot, they want revenge, and the Astros looked bad the last time out. The Astros won seven of eight then went into Arlington to get swept by the Rangers. They will send Grienke to the mound to turn the tide. Who hasn’t been his normal self being 4-1 but with a 3.77 ERA. However the Astros offense has been on fire in 2021. Being first in average runs per game and batting average as a team. Outside of already known stars like Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Michael Brantley who are all hitting above .300 on the season. Yuli Gurriel has been the best hitter in 2021 for Houston. Gurriel is hitting .319 with a .391 on-base percentage, with seven home runs, and a team-best 31 RBI. The Astros offense is dangerous. However, so are the Dodgers. Bet LA takes game one after a long wait. 

Padres vs Brewers 

Padres ML 106+

The Brewers took game one of the four game series between the Padres and Brewers. The Brewers are coming off taking two of three from the Reds. They are third in the NL Central being two games behind the Cardinals and half game behind the second Cubs. Brewers have gone a rough 4-6 over the last 10. Their offense has been finding problems to get on base being 26th in OBP and when they do get in scoring position they usually don’t score, ranking 20th in the league with runners in scoring position. The Brewers struggled to produce. They put 5 runs on Blake Snell early last night. Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff lasted 7.0 innings with three hits and no earned runs. The Padres fought back in the 9th to make it a 5-3 game but that was little too late. The Brewers took game one but it seems a lot went their way. Even then the Padres almost won. Brewers will send Corbin Burnes to the hill. Burnes in 40.1 IP has eight earned), two homers allowed, two walks, 67 strikeouts, and a 1.79 ERA. He’s been very good in 2021. Even a six inning outing against the Padres where he gave up no runs. However the Padres have been a lot better since that matchup. They are first in the NL West for a reason they are red hot, and a legit top 5 baseball team. No hitter Joe Musgrove will be the Padres starter tonight. In 51.0 innings Musgrove has allowed 16 runs (14 earned), six homers, 11 walks, struck out 70, and a 2.47 ERA.  He’s been really good. We will have a good pitching matchup tonight. However the Padres offense that ranks top half in runs, hits, average, and on base percentage will get the edge. San Diego is 4-0 in game two in their last four series, and 20-7 in their last 27 games. While the Brewers are 6-13 in their last 13. Take the red hot Padres as a slight underdog tonight. 

Cardinals vs White Sox 

Cardinals ML 128+ 

Normally if we saw White Sox against the Cardinals we’d be leaning Chicago. However we are looking to beat the sports books this matchup can definitely be one that tricks them. It’s because of the starters in tonight’s matchups. The AL Central White Sox will send Lucas Giolito to take the ball in game two of the series. In nine starts Giolito is 3-4 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 49 2/3 IP. He hasn’t been great for White Sox at all. He had a really bad April, and May has only been a little better. He doesn’t benefit at home as much as many pitchers. Giolito’s posted a 3.60 ERA and 30/11 K/BB in 25 IP at home. The NL Central leading Cardinals have the advantage in this one because of their starter Jack Flaherty. He has been great for the Cardinals in 2021. The Cardinals are nearly unstoppable when Flaherty takes the mound. Flaherty is 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 53 1/3 IP over nine starts. Flaherty had a rough Opening Day since then he’s been shut down. In his next eight starters Flaherty posted a 1.65 ERA. Also the White Sox aren’t good in Giolito’s starts. They rarely give him any run support. They only have scored two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts. With how Jack Flaherty has been pitching, don't except that to change, take the Cardinals. 

Giants vs Dbacks 

Under 9

Giants ML -174 if you are feeling it 

See in the Giants Dbacks matchup we would just suggest the under however the Giants are my favorite to win but not too confident in a straight up win. However we do trust the Giants starters who have allowed the third fewest amount of runs among all starting rotations in the league. Especially starter for tonight Kevin Gausman. The right-hander has been light outs this season, in nine starts he’s gone 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA. Against the struggling Dbacks lineup take that bet. 

By Matthew Doherty 

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