UFC Welterweight Division Breakdown

 Welterweight Division Breakdown

UFC 258 Welterweight Fights Breakdown

First things first let's talk about why we are here, the UFC Welterweight championship was defended Saturday night. When Kamaru Usman defended his championship for the third time he beat the number one ranked, his  former teammate Gilbert Burns by TKO stoppage in the third round. Burns looked good early as he caught Usman behind the ear in the first round, and won the majority of the striking exchanges. It also was clear that Usman didn’t want to grapple with Burns early. Even when Burns went to his butt Usman wouldn’t go in the Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu guard. Wrestling and grappling is usually a main focus of Usman’s game. Not in this one he went with his striking. Usman came out for the second round after losing the first and looked great. He used his great length to keep Burns firecracker hands at a distance. He jabbed Burn’s face off. Usman jab is so effective and one of the best in the sport. Usman dominates Burns on the feet in round 2. Round 3 was more of the same. Usman kept his distance, and used the jab to set up bigger strikes. A jab Burns walks into drops Burns in the middle of the third. No looking back from there as Usman lays a haymaker on former teammate which was the beginning of the end. Usman continues to ferociously lay down fists on Burns face until Herb Dean comes in and calls the fight. A masterful performance by Usman. He made great adjustments and showed he is a true champion. 

There was two other Welterweight fights at UFC 258. The first was Gabe Green vs Philip Rowe on the Early Prelims. Which showed Green giving Ewell the business for fifteen minutes. Green knocked down Ewell twice, landed nearly thirty more significant strikes, and was two for two on takedown attempts. A good win for Green who is coming off a loss. At 27 look for him to ask for some bigger fights a little outside the top 15 or just about around there. In the second Welterweight fight the thirteenth ranked Belal Muhammad fought the MMA veteran and two time TUF finalist Dhiego Lima. Muhammad put on a master class of striking and cardio. He was in Lima’s face all day. Winning nearly all of the striking exchanges, and completely exhausting Lima with constant pressure. Muhammad doubled Lima in strikes and was way more aggressive in grappling exchanges. Clear win for Muhammad he should fight someone above thirteen in the rankings next time around. 

Impact of UFC 258 on Welterweight division 

 The impact of UFC 258 is automatically significant on the Welterweight division because the championship was defended. Usman continues to prove that he is dominant even with how unbearable his press conferences can be. Usman has now beaten Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington, Jorge Masivdal, and Gilbert Burns in title fights. He has defended the belt three times. The number one ranked to the third fourth ranked Usman has beaten. He did beat Leon Edwards prior to his championship run, and both are much different fighters but still he has a win over all of them. Usman is through with the first round of clearing out the division. If he can beat all these guys a second time it sure will be greatly impressive. Belal Muhammad win impacts the division not greatly but does because he has grown a lot inside the octagon. He debuted in the UFC twelve fights and just about five years ago now. He looks like a much different fighter. He has amazing cardio, his striking is calculated, and comes constantly. He has great pressure and works that into his game great. Muhammad deserve a top 15 fight next as he could be another contender in the Welterweight division. Green’s win doesn’t impact the division greatly. However still is a win and who knows maybe this is how he gets hot. Three fights at Welterweight all at different points in the weight class with different impact. 

Outside Top 15 

21-16 rankings (Tapology) 

21 Jake Matthew

20 Gunnar Nelson 

19 Muslim Salikhov

18 Elizeu Zaleski 

17 Nikko Price

16 Santiago Ponzinibbio 

No wins from the top 21-16 in the Welterweight division in 2021 yet. The only one to fight thus far is Santiago Ponzinibbio and he lost by knockout to the twelfth ranked Welterweight Li Jingliang. Only two of them have wins in their last outing. Jake Matthew beat Diego Sanchez by unanimous decision back in September of 2020. That capped off a three fight winning streak. Matthew’s can be on the rise being 26 and all. A fight against a veteran like Santiago Ponzinibbio or Gunnar Nelson would be good for him. Muslim Salikhov has won four out of five fights since joining the UFC in 2017. Salikhov's last win was against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by split decision, who is actually above him in Tapology rankings at the moment. Salikhov is now on a four fight winning streak and at 36 should probably get going. Salikhov should go for the best fight near the top 15 for himself. If he does fight back in the ranking it shouldn’t be too far maybe Jake Matthew or Gunnar Nelson would be good next fights if he was to do that. Nelson for the name and Matthew to stop the young up and comer. Nonetheless in my opinion he should fight Niko Price next. Both like to stand, Price’s last fight was a no contest. Price's last win was in 2019 against James Vick who isn’t on the UFC roster anymore. It’ll show where both are at in their careers. For the man just outside the 15 Santiago Ponzinibbio should take on Elizeu Zaleski. They both are coming off losses. Ponzinibbio already beat Gunnar Nelson. It’s not usual you get someone above you after a loss but Zaleski is in a position where it kind of makes sense for his opponent. If Ponzinibbio is actually top 15 he’ll win the fight if not you can knock him down to where Nelson is. The fight could get either one going again. It’d be an interesting fight. Why not? The UFC Welterweight division has good fights outside the top 15 thats what makes it a UFC marquee division. 

Top 11-15 (UFC Rankings as of Monday 10 am est) 

15 Khamzat Chimaev

14 Robbie Lawler 

13 Belal Muhammad 

12 Li Jingliang 

11 Geoff Neal

The Top 15 of the UFC Welterweight division is stacked all the way through. The top 15 starts out with Khamzat Chimaev the Russian born Swedish prodigy. He had to pull out of his fight against fourth ranked Leon Edwards recently. Apparently he felt like “He was going to die” from Covid complications. Khamzat Chimaev's story was a big headline grabber in 2020 being 9-0, winning two fights in two weeks, and three fights in two months. He won those all by finish and looked dominant in all of them.  He knocked Gerald Meerschaert out in seventeen seconds last outing which was his most impressive win. Meerschaert is no slouch. Should be interesting what’s next for Chimaev as he probably won’t get the Edwards fight again since Edwards is now really aggressive in getting a top 10 fight. Hey maybe you give Chimaev just above him in the rankings Robbie Lawler. Lawler's name is a bigger one in the UFC. Chimaev shouldn’t fight anyone top 5-10 after coming off of Covid. Lawler has crazy power, world class experience, an ability to wrestle, and is ruthless. However that was a given. It would be a good test for Chimaev. Lawler is on a four fight losing streak, showing how good the kid actually is. There’s also really no other fight for Lawler. The next fight for me inside the rankings of 11-15 that should be a given is Li Jingliang vs Belal Muhammad. Li Jingliang is ranked twelfth and last win is a knockout over Santiago Ponzinibbio. Who is just outside the top 15. Belal Muhammad basically did the same thing in his last fight with a crushing win over Dhiego Lima. Who is also outside the top 15. Muhammad deserves a fight in the top 15 and so does Jingliang. They are right next to each other in the rankings. It almost makes too much sense. It also makes sense because you Muhammad already lost to eleventh ranked Geoff Neal. Neal lost to the fifth ranked Stephen Thompson back in December of 2020 in his last outing. Neal could fight Jingliang but for me he deserves someone higher but even I would take that fight. The Muhammad vs Jingliang fight just makes sense to me and you can do other things with Neal. Like have him fight inside the top 10 against Vicente Luque who hasn’t fought since August would have been good. To be honest that would be a good fight. However Tyron Woodley is scheduled to fight Luque at UFC 260. Maybe Neil Magny or Demian Mia would be a good fight for Neal. Both are at the end of their respect careers. Neal needs a win to make him a contender if he can’t beat one of them he doesn’t really deserve another top contender for the time being. Hey maybe even give Neal the Chimaev matchup. You were going to throw Chimaev a top 5 guy why not the eleventh ranked. Neal has nothing much going on at the moment. Neal is flexible right now. If someone gets injured leading up to the Woodley Luque, throw him in there. The UFC rankings from 11-15 are very interesting. Some good, interesting fights can be made inside those rankings, and even expand some of them out. Man Welterweight is real fun. 

Top 6-10 UFC Rankings as of Monday 10 am est) 

10 Vicente Luque

9 Neil Magny 

8 Demian Mia

7 Tyron Woodley 

6 Michael Chiesa 

We have now cracked the top 10 of the best 170 pounders in the UFC. The six through ten spots are filled with veterans of the game. We already have a matchup as we said before between tenth ranked Vicente Luque and eighth ranked Tyron Woodley at UFC 260. A win for Luque would be real nice. Woodley is a former champ, Luque would now be on a three fight winning streak after losing to Stephen Thompson, Luque is only 29 emerging as a real top contender in the Welterweight division. Woodley has more to lose. If Luque loses he’s only 29 and can make a comeback it’s MMA. Woodley is at the end of his career being 38, he’s lost a step in his athletic ability so if there's a time to make one last title run it’s now, he’s on a three fight losing streak. To be fair all three guys are Usman , Covington, and Burns are all top four guys. Woodley needs to get back on track and a win over Luque could be it but a loss can also make the skid look much worse. A loss would have Woodley on a four fight losing streak and knocking a title run out of the picture. Making him look like a washed up champ. The ninth ranked Neil Magny who is 33 and has had a very lengthy UFC career just lost to sixth ranked Michael Chiesa. Magny is not done though but he could be past his prime but he still makes things interesting. In my opinion, throw him up against the veteran Demian Maia. Maia just lost to Gilbert Burns by disgusting knockout, so they both lost in their last fight. They’re not young prospects, they are both seasoned veterans who are looking for a matchup they can win. They both could win this fight depending how it goes. Maia wins he can consider to retire with a quality win. If Magny wins you get him back on track. They are right next to each other in the rankings. Seems like a perfect matchup. For Michael Chiesa since his move up from Lightweight he has looked great. Chiesa lost to Anthony Pettis in his final fight at Lightweight in 2018. He moved up to Welterweight and now is on a four fight winning streak. With big wins over Diego Sanchez, Carlos Condit, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Neil Magny. Chiesa grappling has looked great, his cardio looks better, and he looks bigger and stronger up at Welterweight. Chiesa against the fifth ranked Stephen Thompson could be fun. Especially matchup wise. Thompson is a very good striker and Chiesa a very good grappler. Thompson wants a top 5 fight but this fight would prove he is top 5 for sure. The UFC couldn’t deny him after a win over Chiesa. Chiesa with a win throws himself into that top 5 discussion. Chiesa is on a roll and needs someone higher than him; he's just too hot right now. Maybe someone like Colby Covington would give him a fight so Covington thinks he can just get a win. Hey give him Leon Edwards. Edwards is looking for a fight and Chiesa could be the guy. A win for Edwards would still show he’s among top contention. Either way Chiesa is a serious contender, the most serious up and coming in the Welterweight division if you ask me. The UFC Welterweight rankings have a lot of fun fights and it didn’t stop here. 

Top 5-Champ

5 Stephen Thompson 

4 Jorge Masivdal 

3 Leon Edwards 

2 Colby Covington 

1 Gilbert Burns 

C Kamaru Usman

The Top 5 of the Welterweight division is super fun and exciting for fight fans. It’s one of the best divisions in the UFC up to this point you can see why. The Top 5 makes just put a cherry on top of that. We’ve had prior discussion about the fifth ranked Stephen Thompson. He is coming off two wins one over Geoff Neal and the other Vicente Luque. That’s one Top 15 win and another in the Top 10. Thompson since losing both his title fights against Tyron Woodley back in 2017 it’s been an up and down roller coaster for Thompson. He’s gone 3-2 since then. He has won over Jorge Masivdal but that was three years ago and at that point both were at two different points of their careers. Nonetheless he does have the win. He does have rights to a Top 5 fight. It’s just who? Well maybe we’ll find him as we go through the rest of the division. The fourth ranked Jorge Masivdal seems to be next for the title shot against Usman. He fought Usman to a decision in July on two weeks notice. Since then the trash talk has not stopped and both have been going back and forth since Super Bowl weekend last year. Usman called Masivdal out after his title fight at UFC 258. Masivdal is a good pay day and matchup for Usman it makes sense. Would expect that to be the next title fight. That leaves out three men Gilbert Burns, Colby Covington, and Leon Edwards. If Thompson wasn’t injured he could fight Edwards on the next card. However if Edward wants to wait a little longer he could face Thompson in a couple of months. Edwards against Covington would also be really fun. Both have great cardio. Would be interesting to see who has the edge in grappling and striking. Right now Burns could fight either one of those guys. Burns is coming off a loss in a title fight so he’s probably one or two wins away from getting back there. A win over Covington would guarantee a title shot next. Edwards and Burns would be super interesting. Edwards is coming off a lay off seems like a big fight to get right back into it but why not? These are fighters. A win over Edwards could also give Burns immediate title shot. Hey, even Thompson would be a fun fight. Burns could grapple him if he gets in trouble. Or maybe Thompson has improved there who knows. Burns can get another Top 5 win and Thompson would get his Top 5 fight. Covington seems to want that title fight back. Usman and Covington did go to the end in a fight between two true warriors. Usman won which means Covington complains until he gets to run it back. However Covington did comeback and beat up Tyron Woodley, a former champion. Covington has rights to a title shot. It would be fun for the UFC to run friends to rivals matchup with Masivdal against Covington for the number one contender. Personally would be super down for that. Or even Edwards for Masivdal they never saw each other after that little scrap they had in England. Usman will probably pick Masivdal next but there is no clear contender. So he can sit out and watch some play out. Who knows if we will ever get all these fun fights. So many fun fights in the Welterweight division that can be made, hope they can get at least half of them in. 

 Best Fight That Makes Sense For Each Fighter 

This section is for the best fight for each fighter. It’s not match making fully. We aren’t making out the next fights for Welterweight but the fight that certain fighter should want or take next. That would benefit their career best. 

21 Jake Matthew vs 20 Gunnar Nelson 

17 Nikko Price vs 19 Muslim Salikhov

16 Santiago Ponzinibbio vs 18 Elizeu Zaleski 

15 Khamzat Chimaev vs 11 Geoff Neal 

14 Robbie Lawler vs 15 Khamzat Chimaev

13 Belal Muhammad vs 12 Li Jingliang 

12 Li Jingliang vs 13 Belal Muhammad 

11 Geoff Neal vs 9 Neil Magny

10 Vicente Luque vs 7 Tyron Woodley (Already scheduled UFC 260) 

9 Neil Magny vs 8 Demian Mia 

8 Demian Mia vs 9 Neil Magny 

7 Tyron Woodley vs 10 Vicente Luque (Already scheduled UFC 260)

6 Michael Chiesa vs 5 Stephen Thompson 

5 Stephen Thompson vs 3 Leon Edwards

4 Jorge Masivdal vs C Kamaru Usman

3 Leon Edwards vs 2 Colby Covington 

2 Colby Covington vs 4 Jorge Masivdal 

1 Gilbert Burns vs 5 Stephen Thompson 

C Kamaru Usman vs 4 Jorge Masivdal 

By Matthew Doherty