UFC 258 Breakdowns and Predictions

          UFC 258 Breakdowns and Predictions

Here we are again two weeks removed from the crazy UFC 257. That’s one great thing about a McGregor card: it's usually a made up card so you get a pay per view two weeks later again. Last card I went 6-5 on picks looking to improve on this one. Hope to do so here are my picks and breakdowns of UFC 258.

Early Prelims Saturday Feb 13, 6:30 PM EST UFC Fight Pass

Women’s Flyweight bout 

Gillian Robertson (9-5) vs Miranda Maverick (10-2) 

In the first matchup of the evening the UFC is putting a contest with two women who are fighting for two different things. Gillian Robertson is coming into this one coming off a loss. After looking so dominant leading up to her UFC signing she hasn’t shown that great promise. Since joining the promotion she is 4-3. Robertson might be fighting for her roster spot. She probably will look to grapple with her black belt in Jiu-Jitsu under Din Thomas. Six of her nine wins are by submission. However she will be tested with Miranda Maverick. Maverick is on a four fight winning streak. Her last fight was her first fight in the UFC which she won by TKO doctor’s stoppage. She will look to continue to climb the ranks with a win over a veteran like Robertson. Five of her ten wins are by submission. Maverick has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. We may have an old fashion grappling match. Or just two grapplers kickboxing. It could be fun on the ground and boring on the feet. 

Pick: Maverick over Robertson by decision

Welterweight bout

Gabe Green (9-3) vs Philip Rowe (7-2)

In this matchup we will have two guys hitting their athletic primes looking to get a win here to continue moving up the rankings. They both like to finish. Philip Rowe is coming into the matchup at 7-2. After losing his first two professional fights Rowe has caught fire. Winning the last seven of his fights. Rowe likes to finish both on the ground and feet. Four of his wins are submission and the other three are by TKO. Rowe gets after it. Rowe is 30 and the competition is thick at welterweight he’ll need to start making moves. A win here will be a start. Gabe Green is 9-3 coming into this fight and is looking to rebound from a decision loss. Green is 27 but as said before the Welterweight division is thick and has constant rising stars. To be one of them he will need to win here. The loss snapped a six fight winning streak for Green. He will probably look to use his ground game to his advantage. Six of his nine wins are by submission. The other three are by TKO. Both Rowe and Green like to finish fights but both are well rounded. Expect the two to feel each other out the first round then good exchanges the second and third. A win here for either man would be big. 

Pick: Rowe over Green decision 

Featherweight bout 

Ricky Simon (17-3) vs Brian Kelleher (22-11)

The final fight of the early prelims will show off two guys who have been in the UFC for a little bit now, and are looking to make something of their time. Ricky Simon is coming off a win three weeks ago on a UFC Fight Night the same week as the McGregor vs Poirier card. Simon is only 28 and looking to make a splash at featherweight. He is coming off two wins one being Ray Borg who is a former Flyweight title contender. Before that he lost two fights to Rob Font and Urijah Faber. Simon was climbing the rankings but hit a bump. He’ll look to get back to his winning ways in this one. Simon likes to grind out his opponents with nine of his wins coming by decision. He does this with his well rounded game. Simon grew up a wrestler and developed his striking and submission game. He will need this well rounded game against his opponent Brian Kelleher. Kelleher is coming off a win back in September of 2020. Kelleher has tangoed as well with some good UFC fighters. He beat former Bantamweight champion Renan Barao but then lost to contender John Lienker back in 2018. Since Kelleher has had trouble finding the groove for things being 3-2 in his last five fights. A win against the 28 year old Simon would show the UFC the 34 Kelleher can still dance. Fighting out of Long Island, New York Kelleher is tough on the ground winning ten of his twenty-two wins by submission. He can be caught though six of his eleven losses are by submission as well. Kelleher will need to be better on his feet in this one. Simon will look to pressure and bring the fight to him. Simon may also try to see how his grappling compares. My believe is these boys will scrap for a good fight. 

Pick: Simon over Kelleher decision 

Prelims Saturday, Feb 13, 8:00 PM EST  ESPN

Catchweight bout 

Andre Ewell (17-6) vs Chris Gutierrez (15-3-2)

In the first fight of the ESPN Prelims is two veterans looking to make some noise in the Bantamweight division. Andre Ewell is coming into this fight at 17-6. Ewell is 4-2 since joining the UFC back in 2018. His first win came against former champion Renan Barao in a split decision. He would go 3-2 in his next five bouts showing promise but not anything great enough to crack the top 15. Ewell is a former boxer; he was 0-4 in his career and switched to MMA after losing custody of his daughter. He needed to prove he could pay the bills so he took up MMA and it worked out. At 33 however Ewell needs a win to contend in the Bantamweight division. Seven of his wins are by knockout but don’t sleep on his ground game he has four wins by submission as well. Ewell tested positive for Covid February 6th that’s how he got this fight he was rescheduled after being taken off the Fight Night. His opponent Chris Gutiérrez is 29 who had a draw in his last fight which ended a three fight winning streak. Gutiérrez may be a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu but he looks to stand and bang. Seven of his fifteen wins are by knockout. Seven others are by decision so it’s not like he just stands in the middle and just swings. He mixes in his grappling when he has too. However for Ewell this may be the matchup he needs to get back in on top because of his boxing. Gutiérrez is 3-1-1 since joining the UFC. Should be a really fun fight with not a lot of grappling for you casuals. 

Pick: Ewell over Gutiérrez TKO Round 3 

Women’s Strawweight 

Polyana Viana (11-4) vs Mallory Martin (7-3)

The UFC in their second matchup of the prelims will be putting up two women close in age but at two different points in their careers. Polyana Viana won her last fight by a first round arm bar submission victory. She really needed that the victory snapped a three fight losing streak. She is 2-3 since joining the UFC back in 2018 and could have been cut with another loss. She might need a win here to stay on the roster and prove she’s a contender. Her background is Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu where she has a brown belt. She has four knockouts wins but she dominated with her grappling to force those. Expect her to do the same. This will be Mallory Martin’s third fight in the UFC also coming off a win she is 1-1 in the promotion. Martin is also a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu  under Matt Simms. She won her last fight by submission and lost her first fight in the UFC by the same rear naked choke. She does have two knockouts. The matchup is similar styles going against each other. Personally expect the two to respect each other’s skills and stand up. Maybe we will get some good grappling exchanges but expect Viana to apply pressure. She will be fighting for her spot in the UFC. Could be a boring stand up fight or very good grappling fight. 

Pick: Martin over Viana by decision 

Welterweight bout

13 Belal Muhammad (17-3) vs Dhiego Lima (17-7)

The third fight of the Prelims will be two UFC veterans who will finally look to crack that top 15. Dhiego Lima is the brother of Bellator Welterweight Champion Douglas Lima. However he is the older brother. Douglas Lima has had his success in MMA; his older brother hasn’t had that same success. Dhiego Lima lost in the finale of the Ultimate Fighter back in 2014 to Eddie Gordon. Then he lost to Jesse Taylor in the UFC Ultimate Fighter Redemption Finale back in 2017. However the UFC still signed Lima to a deal. He has been 3-1 since that loss to Taylor. Lima is an all around fighter that usually pushes his fight with decision. He has a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu but he doesn’t use it much more for defense and to force pressure. Lima won both his last fights by split decision but he’s hoping for a clean win in this one. He’s 32 and if he wants his brother’s success he will need to get going now. A win over someone in the top 15 will be the first step. Us hardcore UFC fans have seen Belal Muhammad really grow as a fighter since joining the promotion back in 2016. Muhammad is not a finishing fighter twelve of his seventeen wins are by decision. That’s why Lima is a good matchup for him; they both have cardio and can go the distance. Muhammad is on a three fight winning streak. He will look to grapple Lima by holding up against the cage and on the ground to wear Lima down. Don’t sleep on Muhammad’s ground game he can submit people as well. Muhammad should hope for a finish here to get a top 15 above him in the rankings. A finish here will guarantee that. Expect this fight to go to a decision but whoever wins deserves a bigger fight inside the top 15. 

Pick: Muhammad over Lima decision 

Middleweight bout 

Rodolfo Vieira (7-0) vs Anthony Hernandez (7-2-0 1 NC)  

In the final Prelim fight we have two veterans that love to throw down in the grappling. Anthony Hernandez is Jiu-Jitsu expert who is coming in off a loss from rising star Kevin Holland back in May of 2020. Hernandez will look to get back on track and become a Middleweight contender with a win here. Hernandez is 2-2-1NC in his last five fights. He really doesn’t need a win but back to back losses won’t fare well in a rising Middleweight class. He has won five of his seven fights by submission. It appears in this one it’ll be on display again but put to the test. Hernandez's opponent is Rodolfo Vieira who is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Vieira has won a whole lot of Jiu-Jitsu World Championships. That may stabilize Hernandez grappling. Vieira is unbeaten at 7-0 and six of his wins are by submission. No shocker there. He may have to expand his game in this one. In his third fight in the UFC Vieira will have to use more striking to set up his master class grappling abilities. Hope we get a lot of good grappling exchanges not just two not so kickboxer staring at each other. To be honest expect the exchanges to happen. Vieira may have a lot of confidence in his grappling. 

Pick: Vieira over Hernandez Submission Round 2

Main Card Sat, February 13th, 10:00 PM EST ESPN+ 

Middleweight bout 

Maki Pitolo (13-7) vs Julian Marquez (7-2) 

In the first fight of Pay-Per-View Main Card it will be two Middleweights that love to scrap. Maki Pitolo is coming into this one on a two fight losing streak. Since getting a win on Dana White’s Contender Series Pitolo has gone 1-3 in the UFC. He will need a win here for the UFC to keep him, you would think. He has lost his last two fights by decision and submission, unable to force his good striking. He will get the chance against his opponent Julian Marquez. Marquez has not fought in 31 months due to injury. He says in his return “Y’all will remember.” He is looking to make his return fun after being out of the octagon for so long. Six of seven wins are by knockout and promised a finish at 258. Expect these two to stand there and bang. The opening fight of the Main Card will be fun except a knockout and two men trading blows. 

Pick: Marquez over Pitolo by TKO Round 2 

Lightweight bout 

Jim Miller (32-15-0 1NC) vs Bobby Green (27-11-1) 

A fight that was moved from the undercard to the main card due to two fight cancellations will showcase two true UFC veterans. Jim Miller at 37 says he hopes this fight is one of his last two. He looks to retire at UFC 300 a win here will make that retirement that much sweeter. Miller is veteran of the UFC who has Dustin Poirer, Clay Guida, Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, Anthony Pettis, Diego Sanchez, nearly every name you know that is a Lightweight. Miller has never come close to winning a championship but his career sure has been fun. The scrapper from New Jersey is one of the toughest guys in the sport. On the other side of the cage will be Bobby Green. Another UFC veteran who has fought Dustin Poirer, Clay Guida, Edson Barboza, and others. Both Green and Miller are wrestlers but Miller in my between is better at submission attempts. Green probably isn’t looking to retire but for him to get back on track a win over Miller would be a good way to start. Two very similar styles in this one. Expect a good tough fight from both fighters. Should be interesting to see what veteran pulls it out. 

Pick: Jim Miller over Bobby Green by decision 

Middleweight bout 

9 Kelvin Gastelum (15-6) vs 15 Ian Heinisch (14-3)

In the third fight of the main card we have a top 15 Middleweight bout between a former title contender and someone who is trying to make a name. Kelvin Gastelum after moving from Welterweight and Middleweight has looked like a much better fighter. With big wins over Tim Kennedy, Michael Bisping, and Ronaldo Souza that got Gastelum an interim Middleweight title fight with Israel Adesanya. They went to war but Gastelum came up short. Since that loss he’s 0-2 losing to Darren Till and upset by Jack Hermansson. That leaves Gastelum here fighting someone in the back 15 not the front 15. Gastelum has a wrestling background but really has abandoned it in his UFC career. He has become more of a boxer who uses his wrestling more as defense or when he gets in trouble once in a while. Gastelum will be going up against the fifteenth ranked Ian Heinisch. Heinisch is coming off a win against Gerald Meerschaert. Where he looked very good. Heinisch is a black belt in kickboxing and jiu-jitsu. At 33 and 41 fights into this whole fighting thing Heinisch is no amateur. 23 of his 31 wins are by submission. He is very well rounded and he can be a contender in the Middleweight division. Expect Heinisch to want to go to the ground with Gastelum but won’t be afraid to stand with him either. Gastelum does have the takedown defense and even the grappling to counter Heinisch’s great abilities. Super interesting fight Gastelum looks to stay a top contender and Heinisch looks to be one should be a fun fight real good matchup.

Pick: Gastelum over Heinisch decision 

Co Main Event 

Women’s Flyweight 

10 Maycee Barber (8-1) vs 15 Alexa Grasso (12-3)

In the Co Main Event two top 15 Women Flyweights will get a spotlight they didn’t expect. Uriah Hall against Chris Weidman was scrapped due to injury so the UFC bump Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso to the on deck circle. Maycee Barber is only 22 years of age and is ranked tenth at her weight class. She is coming in off a loss a year ago where she tore her ACL in the fight. She looks to return to competition in a big way showing she is the next generation of the Women’s Flyweight division. Barber likes to make the fight bloody and loves to scrap. Five of her eight wins are by knockout. The matchup is made for her style. As her opponent Alexa Grasso has no wins by submission and never really looks to tap anyone out. Grasso is coming into this one coming off a win in her Women’s Flyweight debut. She says she feels great at this weight which is great to hear. Grasso is 27, five years Barber’s senior but still on the rise. A win over Barber here will be huge for Grasso hype and show she is here to stay at Flyweight. Grasso has amazing cardio, a good ground game, complimented by calculated striking. Grasso doesn’t look to finish but she can tire you out and pour it on late. Expect that to be her game plan especially since Barber hasn’t fought in nearly a year. Should be a good one with a win here for either woman is big for their confidence. 

Pick: Barber over Grasso TKO Round 2

Main Event 

Welterweight Championship 

Kamaru Usman (17-1) vs Gilbert Burns (19-3) 

We have a great main event at UFC 258 with former teammates going at it for the Welterweight championship. Kamaru Usman is coming into this fight looking unstoppable. He is on a sixteen fight winning streak and looks like he has all the tools to be the Welterweight goat. Yes he can challenge GSP’s reign as the best to do it in the division. Since grabbing the title from Tyron Woodley Usman has beaten Colby Covington, and Jorge Masivdal. Usman beat Rafael Dos Anjos and Demian Mia before the Woodley victory. He has names on his resume and would love to add Burns to it. He’s close to clearing out the division. Usman has amazing wrestling ability which was expected coming from division two background but it really is next level MMA wrestling. Usman transferred his camp from Florida to Colorado so he could train with Trevor Wittman. Wittman has trained high caliber strikers like UFC lightweight Justin Gaethje and strawweight Rose Namajunas. He can improve Usman’s striking game drastically. If you add that to Usman’s wrestling he is very dangerous. However former teammate Gilbert Burns may be Usman’s best challenge yet. A problem with fighting really good wrestlers is you really don’t know what to expect or how they feel before you fight them. Burns has that advantage on Usman he knows his feel, his tendencies something past opponents didn’t have the advantage of. Burns was coming up when Usman won the belt. He was watching him. Usman wasn’t watching Burns. Burns is on a six fight winning streak and definitely has a ton of talent. He has won multiple world titles in Jiu-Jitsu which could counter Usman’s wrestling. He may even catch Usman; it's so high level. Burns does have good striking but unknown how good against a wrestler like Usman who keeps you on your back foot. Burns dominated Woodley who is also a wrestler but Woodley doesn’t use his wrestling like Usman. Expect the fight to be a great one. Can't wait to see where the fight decides to go. Both men are so talented in each area and really can not wait for this one. 

Pick: Burns over Usman submission Round 2 

By Matthew Doherty