Goat Talk Divisional Round Playoff Breakdown/Predictions

Saturday 4:35 PM Colts @ Chiefs AFC Divisional Round- In my opinion the Colts at Arrowhead stadium in Kansas City against the Chiefs is the best game in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs come into their first game of the playoffs being 12-4 capturing the AFC West and that number one seed in the AFC. With the bye that gave the Chiefs number one offense in the NFL a chance to rest up. They will be playing the Colts who are the fifth seed, and beat division rival Houston Texans in the Wildcard Round on the road last week. The Chiefs are home which would presume to be an advantage in the playoffs but not for the Chiefs. They haven't won a home playoff game since 1994. The Colts being one of those upset losses back when the Chiefs had the number one seed then the Colts and Peyton Manning upset them at home. The Colts come in winning the last ten of eleven games lead by their comeback player of the year in my opinion in quarterback Andrew Luck. One way the Colts can come in and upset the Chiefs at home is keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. That is not a secret. One way is converting on third down which the Colts have been the best at being the best in the league on third in 2018. The Chiefs will try to be on the field often, and being 2nd on third down conversions is a way to counter the Colts. It will be up to defense to get off the field on third down. It will be hard to trust the Chiefs 31st defense in the league to do that. The Colts will look to get the running game going with Marlon Mack to take the pressure off Luck. Mack has had the most yards in total over the last four weeks with 440 yards. A lot of credit to the Colts number one offensive line in the league for that. The Chiefs will look to make the game a shootout behind MVP front runner Patrick Mahomes who has 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, 12 interception, and a 117.8 QB rating. The Colts lack weapons where the Chiefs do not with receiver Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and tight end Travis Kelce. The Chiefs also have to try to get Spencer Ware or Damien Williams going on the ground. If the Chiefs establish the run game it can put the game away. The Colts and Andrew Luck can not get into a shootout because in my belief they lacks weapons. The game will be fun and a must watch.

Prediction: 31-28 Colts upset Chiefs at Arrowhead again.

Saturday 8:15 PM Cowboys @ Rams NFC Divisional Round- We have the Cowboys going to the lights of Hollywood to the LA Rams in a NFC Divisional Round matchup. The number two seed Los Angeles Rams come in at 13-3 coming off the bye against red hot Dallas Cowboys who took the NFC East and the Wildcard Round against the Seahawks at home. The Cowboys who have be doubted are a top four team in the NFC making to the Divisional Round. With good play young quarterback Dak Prescott and running back star Ezekiel Elliott. The Rams have home field advantage that won’t really exist as Dallas fans travel well, and Rams fans to seem to forget to come out on primetime. It will be a 50-50 field in LA. The Rams are 2-2 over the last four games losing to games back to back to the Bears and Eagles both playoff times. They however finished off the seasons with wins against the struggling 49ers and Cardinals. The Cowboys have a makeup to win games it is clear. They will look to try to slow down the Rams running back Todd Gurley with the fifth best run defense in the league. Rams like to rush Gurley but they know they can’t lean on him Sean Mcvay has shown in the past that if he has to he will have third year quarterback Jared Goff throw forty times in game. The Rams have the second best offense in the league with the third best rushing attack and fifth best pass offense. If the Rams get Gurley going giving Goff play action it will be hard for the Cowboys thirteenth ranked pass defense to stop that offense. The Cowboys know they can not get into a shootout with Prescott at the helm of the offense. The Cowboys identity is rush the ball with league leader in rushing yards Ezekiel Elliott. Elliot has rushed for Elliot 1,434 yards on 304 carries averaging 4.7 yards a carry. Only let Prescott throw the ball 20-25 times, hold on to the football, and have their elite defense stop the opposing offense for long enough. One way the Rams will look to stop the time of possession from favoring the Cowboys is getting after the quarterback, and slowing down the running game. Aaron Donald will be a big piece to that task who had a league lead 20.5 sacks in 2018. Donald is an MVP candidate who will give the Cowboys elite offensive line huge problems. If Prescott is pressured how may make mistakes which has been a big reason they have been winning they don’t give extra possessions. They 6th in fewest interceptions in the NFL over the last 3 weeks. Rams have been a high powered offense who also can stay on the field converting for a league's third best over the last three on third. The Rams have also averaged for the second best on yards per play over that span. The Cowboys defense has proven that can stop big offense with holding Drew Brees and the Saints to ten. They will stay have their hands full in LA with Sean Mcvay getting two the scheme. Big time prime time Cowboys vs Rams let’s get it on.

Prediction: 24-14 The Rams get the win at home with a chance to host the NFC Championship game. Cowboys amazing run comes up short once again with a lot of optimism with such a talented young roster.

Sunday 1:05 PM Chargers @ Patriots AFC Divisional Round- The Chargers come into Gillette stadium in Foxboro with their most talented roster in years against the least intimidating Patriots team that we have seen. Least intimidating still means getting the second seed in the AFC with a 11-5 record, and another AFC East crown. The Chargers avenged a loss to the Ravens last week on the road now they will look to finally dethrone the Patriots from the AFC mountain top. Philip Rivers has been having an amazing season Philip Rivers being 68% on pass attempts, 4,308 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions with a 108 QB rating. Rivers has an average passing offense being fifteenth in the league but with the running game with Melvin Gordon that has given them a eleventh ranked offense in the league. The Chargers will need to get going with Gordon to get going. The Chargers will have a similar game plan to the Cowboys this week. The Patriots have the fifth ranked offense with Tom Brady being old but the Goat of the league. Brady isn’t having his best year but he’s even with Rivers in almost every stat but the media continues to say Rivers has an amazing season then looking down on Brady. At forty-one Tom Brady has completed 66%, of his throws, thrown for 4,355 yards, 29 touchdowns, but high for him in 11 interceptions with a 98 QB rating. Somehow Bill Belichick finds someone to play running back to make scheming work. Sony Michel has been great coming up player for the Patriots as well of James White. They lack personnel especially with the loss of Josh Gordon. That puts a lot more coverage on tight end Rob Gronkowski with a slowing down Julian Edelman, then other receivers such as Phillip Dorsett and Kevin Hogan. Wouldn’t say the Patriots have as many weapons as they used to. The Chargers will look to expose the Patriots lack of talent on offense with their loads of talent in Joey Bosa on the line, Melvin Ingram at lineback, rookie star Derwin James, and more. The Charges defense is the ninth ranked total defense in the league. The Patriots will look to keep the Chargers on the field with being fifth in time of possession but Brady isn’t someone that is scared of a shootout. The Chargers like big plays that shows being fifth in yards per play. Look the Chargers to take a different approach with pounding the ball then trusting their veteran quarterback with the ball on second and third. The Chargers will have to stay discipline to not give up unnecessary yards on penalties. The Patriots are very discipline putting them fourth in fewest yards given up on penalties. They also don’t give up second chances with the ball often being third in turnovers. The Patriots don’t give away first downs or second possessions the Chargers will have to keep the ball safe or it will be tough to win in Foxboro. The Chargers get to the races fast being sixth in first half points they will need to get a lead early making the Patriots play the catch up game. Don’t let the Patriots apply the pressure they will break the pipes. Phillip Rivers has a short memory which will help since he is 0-7 against Tom Brady. A huge win in Foxboro against Tom Brady and the Patriots that will be a vintage win for his Hall of Fame campaign and that road to his first Super Bowl title. Tom Brady is chasing that sixth Super Bowl title not looking to slow down. Especially not an upset at home off of a bye week that’s the formula for a Patriots win. Two weeks to scheme but don’t expect the Chargers to go away they are road warriors they will come to play.

Predictions: 28-24 Chargers. Philip Rivers will improve to 1-7 against Brady getting that win he so long needed, and all the momentum he needs to getting that first Super Bowl. Tom Brady and the Patriots will not rebuild but reload for maybe one more run at a title.

Sunday 4:35 PM Eagles @ Saints NFC Divisional Round- The Eagles are going to the take their Foles magic down to New Orleans to maybe cast a spell on Drew Brees and that Saints offense to get another big win in the playoffs. The Eagles are in the Divisional Round after fighting and clawing to get that final Wildcard spot. Then last week Bears kicker Cody Parkey hit the upright with 10 seconds left to go to give the Eagles 16-15 win. The football Gods have been once again smiling down on Nick Foles to another amazing run but their biggest task is waiting for them ahead. Drew Brees and the Saints come in as the eighth ranked offense in the entire NFL. In 2018 Sean Payton Saints head coach has really been given many weapons to scheme with. Such as Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Michael Thomas. The Saints have the twelfth ranked passing attack but it’s their running game that’s sixth in the league that really is what makes the offense so dynamic. If the Saints get play action going it’s all over for the Eagles. You may see another 48-7 Saints beat down of the Eagles like early in 2018 season. However over the last 3 games the Eagles offense led by Nick Foles has averaged more points than the Saints. When the Eagles first played the Saints they had Carson Wentz at quarterback. The Eagles are also playing much better since then. The offensive line has improved to what they were last year, Foles is using Alshon Jeffery’s deep play ability, and the defense is making stops. The Eagles will need the time of possession to win this football game. Good thing is no one has been better at that in 2018 than the Eagles as they are first in the NFL in T.O.P. Over that same span Nick Foles and that Eagles offense has been number one in passing yards per game. The Eagles can move the ball not like in that Saints game when they were clearly struggling. We talked about how the Eagles defense really lacked in that first game well since Foles took over at quarterback the Eagles were ranked first twenty-third in total defense. Since then the Eagles are third. The Foles magic is real. However the Eagles will not look for a shootout between Brees and Foles in the dome in New Orleans. The Saints are fourth in first half points and second in second half points. The Saints have the ability to score at anytime. Philadelphia will need a run game but the Saints have a top five run defense in the league. The Saints are the second best at stopping the run in 2018 but the Eagles since Foles has taken over are first in opposing rushing yards per game. The Eagles defense is a different defense may we say since that game in New Orleans all them weeks ago. It’s an interesting game and matchup can the new Eagles look that are much different than the old Eagles in 2018. Can the Saints keep their hot streak alive in New Orleans to host a NFC Championship game? It all goes down in the down under of New Orleans.

Prediction: 35-24 Saints. Drew Brees and all his weapons will be too much for that Eagles defense. Nick Foles magic run will come to end and their will be new Super Bowl Champions. However they’ll back next year but probably with a new backup quarterback.

By Matthew Doherty